Axcelis Technologies, Inc. (ACLS)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$115.08+4.27%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ACLS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 20.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 71 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ACLS — CFO transition
Dated 2026-03-12
Chief Financial Officer — James Coogan: James Coogan resigned as Chief Financial Officer, and David Ryzhik was appointed as Interim Chief Financial Officer.
Why it matters: Shifts in Memory market demand impact Axcelis' revenue and growth.
Watch forMemory market demand is growing. This leads to more orders for Axcelis.
Also watch forIf Memory market demand goes down or stays the same, orders for Axcelis will drop.
Why it matters: A stable gross margin shows better operations and profits. This is key for investor trust.
Supportive ifGAAP gross margin reported at or above 40% in upcoming quarters.
Worry ifGAAP gross margin falls below 40% for two consecutive quarters.
Why it matters: Completing the merger is key for Axcelis' growth strategy and future value creation.
Supportive ifAn official announcement will confirm the merger is done by the end of 2026.
Worry ifDelay in merger completion beyond 2026 without clear reasons.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this guidance shows continued growth momentum in key markets.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue reported at or above $230 million.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported below $220 million.
Why it matters: Better gross margins mean operations are doing well. This shows profits are recovering.
Supportive ifGross margin improves from 42.4% in Q2 to above 43% in Q3.
Worry ifGross margin declines further below 40% in Q3.
Why it matters: Strong performance in these markets is crucial for Axcelis' revenue growth.
Supportive ifManagement says there is more demand or bookings in Memory and CS&I markets.
Worry ifManagement says there is a slowdown in demand or bookings in these markets.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$370 on $10,000 · ±3.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $613 loss on $10,000 · 6.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,254 loss on $10,000 · 42.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.