Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-11-01 · fmp
$19.93 → $19.93 · observed estimates
Analog Devices (ADI)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$361.01-11.13%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ADI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Quarterly dividend increases steadily | A supporting condition in Analog Devices's published investment case. The stated target is Dividend >= $1.10 per share next quarter. | Intact | Dividend does not increase or falls next quarter | Dividend per share: $1.10 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Dividend >= $1.10 per share next quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 19, 20261.1 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-11-01 · fmp
$19.93 → $19.93 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 24, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ADI is a quality semiconductor business with a multi-year thesis built on growth across end markets and improving operating margins. The thesis is on watch: momentum has improved, but company quality scores have fallen and recent performance remains below its industry cohort.
The valuation evidence is mixed: ADI is described as cheap versus peers, yet it also carries a 0.7 premium versus peers, and the model rates value as expensive. The expectations gap is negative, while the priced-in tag is justified and fragility is low, suggesting the evidence does not point to a clearly fragile setup.
Near-term results show revenue rising from $3.08 billion in 2025-Q4 to $4.02 billion in 2026-Q3, while operating margin increased from 30.7% to 40.1%; guidance calls for 42.6% in 2026-Q4. Management has stayed focused on growth, margins, and capital returns, and recent results indicate progress, though a guidance cut or continued weak performance versus peers would be a risk.
The multi-year thesis depends on whether broad end-market growth and margin improvement continue. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; easing rates or steadier results and guidance from major technology companies could support the sector backdrop.
Over the next one to three years, ADI’s growth and margin progress support the long-term thesis, but mixed valuation signals and below-cohort performance warrant attention. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 6 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Dividend Payment The ADI Board of Directors has declared a quarterly cash dividend of $1.10 per outstanding share of common stock.” “Dividend Payment The ADI Board of Directors has declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.99 per outstanding share of common stock.”
Operating margin near 38% | Profit margin is near 38%. | Improving | Operating margin falls below 30% next quarter | Operating margin: -493.82% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=37.5% operating margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 25, 2025-493.824271 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““We believe our balance of disciplined execution and targeted growth investments will enable us to finish the year strongly and carry that momentum into fiscal 2027.”” “At the midpoint of this revenue outlook, we expect reported operating margin of approximately 36.4%, +/-150 bps, and adjusted operating margin of approximately 47.5%, +/-100 bps.” Operating income was $1.613 billion in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue grows about 37% year over year | Analog Devices grows revenue about 37% yearly. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 20% next year | Revenue: $4.022B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=37% YoY revenue growth. Target and observation units differ. Aug 19, 20264,021,899,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$20.82B → $20.82B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | $19.93 | $20,824,025,813 | 10 / 20 |
| 2026-11-03 | $19.93 | $20,824,025,813 | 10 / 20 |
| 2026-11-04 | $19.93 | $20,824,025,813 | 10 / 20 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 30 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.