Analog Devices (ADI)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$362.25+1.61%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ADI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -7.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 56.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 63.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 71 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ADI — litigation filed
Dated 2026-07-29
Other Events On June 23, 2026, Analog Devices, Inc. (the “Company”) identified unauthorized access to certain Company systems. Following detection of the unauthorized access, the Company immediately activated its incident response protocols and engaged external cybersecurity experts to assist with containment and investigation activities. The Company has also notified and is coordinating with law enforcement authorities. The Company’s operations were not interrupted throughout the duration of…
Why it matters: Weakening demand could signal trouble for ADI's growth. It would impact revenue and margins.
Worry ifThere are reports of fewer orders in the Industrial and Data Center segments.
Less concerning ifDemand is still strong in these segments, with more orders coming in.
Why it matters: Strong free cash flow supports dividend payments and share buybacks. It indicates financial health and operational strength.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported above $4 billion.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $3.5 billion.
Why it matters: Finishing this deal would improve ADI's products and market position.
Supportive ifCompletion of the Empower acquisition by the end of 2026.
Worry ifDelay or failure to close the Empower acquisition.
Why it matters: A drop in free cash flow could signal issues in cash generation and capital allocation.
Worry ifFree cash flow remains at or above 36% of revenue.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow falls below 34% of revenue.
Why it matters: An increase would show strong cash flow and commitment to returning value to shareholders. No increase could signal caution.
Supportive ifThe company says it will raise the quarterly dividend.
Worry ifThe company maintains the dividend at $1.10 per share without an increase.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth shows high demand and good business execution.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth reported above 10% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: A new CFO can impact financial strategy and investor confidence. This transition is crucial for future growth.
Watch forA press release confirming the appointment of a new CFO with relevant experience.
Also watch forNo announcement of a new CFO by the end of the fiscal year.
Why it matters: A new CFO can impact financial strategy and investor confidence. The transition may affect future guidance.
Watch forAnnouncement of a new CFO with a strong background in semiconductor finance.
Also watch forContinued uncertainty with no new CFO appointed by the end of the fiscal year.
Why it matters: Guidance for FY2027 will show how management views future demand and market conditions.
Supportive ifManagement expects revenue to grow over 15% each year for FY2027.
Worry ifManagement lowers revenue growth guidance below 10% for FY2027.
Why it matters: If guidance is exceeded, it shows strong demand and supports growth.
Supportive ifQ4 revenue guidance is over $4.3 billion, showing strong demand.
Worry ifQ4 revenue guidance is below $4.2 billion, showing weak demand.
Why it matters: This margin shows good cost control and efficiency.
Supportive ifOperating margin is 42.6% or higher in Q4.
Worry ifOperating margin is below 40% in Q4, which may mean cost issues.
Why it matters: Finishing this acquisition would grow ADI's product range and boost growth.
Supportive ifThere will be news about the successful deal completion.
Worry ifThere is a delay or cancellation of the acquisition.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$164 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $349 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,068 loss on $10,000 · 20.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.