Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
ADMA Biologics, Inc. (ADMA)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$13.21+26.05%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.94 → 0.94 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ADMA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operations improves to at least $58 million in Q1 2026 | Cash from operations turned positive to $58 million in Q1 2026. | Intact | Cash from operations falls below $58 million in Q1 2026 | Cash from operations: $29.539M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $58 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 5, 202629,539,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ADMA is a growth-oriented healthcare business with a multi-year view that depends on continued execution. Its thesis is currently intact, though confidence is medium and risk is elevated.
The evidence describes ADMA as cheap versus peers, with expectations below the model’s view. Pricing is tagged as justified, and fragility is low, meaning weak execution is not joined by the full combination of expensive valuation and turbulent conditions.
Recent financial performance is strong, and the August earnings update was in line after a May miss. Near term, revenue growth remains a priority to watch; guidance cuts and the industry’s history of earnings misses are risks. Management is on track with its share-repurchase plan and continues SG-001 development, with a pre-IND meeting package planned by year-end 2026.
The multi-year view depends on sustained revenue growth, disciplined execution, and progress on SG-001. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data could pressure the business outlook, while continued strong results and higher guidance from healthcare bellwethers could support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ADMA’s thesis remains intact, with strong recent performance and improved sector conditions balanced by elevated risk and execution questions. The key evidence to watch is revenue growth, guidance, and development progress. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profitability improves with net income rising to $45 million in Q1 2026. |
| Broken |
| Net income falls below $45 million in Q1 2026 |
Net income: $49.884M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $45 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 202649,884,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
FDA label expansion supports revenue growth | FDA label expansion supports future revenue growth. | Intact | Loss or reversal of FDA label expansion benefits | FDA label expansion active (Jun 2026) FDA label expansion received June 2026. Earnings beat Nov 2026. No regulatory reversals reported. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Total revenue reaches at least $530 million in FY 2026 | A primary condition in ADMA Biologics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $530 million. | Intact | Revenue falls below $530 million in FY 2026 | Revenue: $141.102M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $530 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026141,102,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.98 → $0.94 · observed estimates
$0.70B → $0.63B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.98 | $700,585,200 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.98 | $700,585,200 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.98 | $700,585,200 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.98 | $700,585,200 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.98 | $700,585,200 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.98 | $700,585,200 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.98 | $700,585,200 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.98 | $700,585,200 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.98 | $700,585,200 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.98 | $700,585,200 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.98 | $700,585,200 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.98 | $700,585,200 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.98 | $700,598,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.98 | $700,598,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.94 | $629,542,467 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.97 | $699,584,400 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.97 | $699,584,400 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.97 | $699,584,400 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.98 | $700,324,400 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.98 | $700,324,400 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.98 | $700,324,400 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.94 | $629,542,467 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.94 | $629,542,467 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.94 | $629,542,467 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.94 | $629,542,467 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.94 | $629,542,467 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.94 | $629,542,467 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.94 | $629,544,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.94 | $629,549,567 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.94 | $629,549,567 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.94 | $629,549,567 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.94 | $629,549,567 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.94 | $629,549,567 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.94 | $629,549,567 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.94 | $629,549,567 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.94 | $629,549,567 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.94 | $629,549,567 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.94 | $629,549,567 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.94 | $629,549,567 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.94 | $629,549,567 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.94 | $629,549,567 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.94 | $629,549,567 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.94 | $629,549,567 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.94 | $629,549,567 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.94 | $629,549,567 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.94 | $629,549,567 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.94 | $629,549,567 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.94 | $629,549,567 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.94 | $629,549,567 | 3 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.