ADMA Biologics, Inc. (ADMA)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$13.21+26.05%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ADMA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -25.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 19.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 45.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 66 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ADMA — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-05
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 furnished herewith, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requir…
Why it matters: BIVIGAM revenue was down 49% from a year earlier, though it rose from Q1. A continued recovery would ease pressure on total sales.
Watch forQ3 BIVIGAM revenue rises from Q2's $19.4 million and is higher than a year earlier.
Also watch forQ3 BIVIGAM revenue falls below $19.4 million or remains down at least 49% year over year.
Why it matters: ASCENIV is ADMA's main growth driver. Continued sales growth would support the company's growth case.
Supportive ifQ3 ASCENIV revenue grows at least 20% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 ASCENIV revenue grows less than 10% year over year or falls from a year earlier.
Why it matters: ADMA kept its 2026 revenue range at $530 million to $560 million. Q3 results will show whether sales are tracking toward that range.
Watch forQ3 revenue is at least $177 million, keeping the first nine months at $530 million or more.
Also watch forQ3 revenue is below $177 million, leaving the first nine months below $530 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$157 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $475 loss on $10,000 · 4.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,271 loss on $10,000 · 62.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.