ADMA Biologics, Inc. (ADMA)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$9.62+0.42%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ADMA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -40.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 16.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 57.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ADMA — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-05
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 furnished herewith, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requir…
Why it matters: BIVIGAM revenue growth would show recovery from recent drops. It would mean market stability.
Supportive ifBIVIGAM revenue improves from the previous quarter in Q2 2026.
Worry ifBIVIGAM revenue continues to decline in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Updates on SG-001 may show how much money it can make in the future.
Watch forGood news about SG-001 development or trial results is shared.
Also watch forBad news or delays in SG-001 development are reported.
Why it matters: Stable ordering patterns may show steady demand and help predict revenue.
Watch forADMA sees steady orders from distributors in Q2 2026.
Also watch forADMA sees changes in orders from distributors in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Hitting this revenue mark would show recovery from stagnation. It supports management's growth plan.
Supportive ifTotal revenue for Q2 exceeds $130 million.
Worry ifTotal revenue for Q2 falls below $120 million.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow supports ongoing growth initiatives and financial health.
Supportive ifCash from operations exceeds $50 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash from operations falls below $50 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Strong ASCENIV revenue growth is key for ADMA's total revenue. Over 24% growth shows demand and market reach.
Supportive ifASCENIV revenue growth exceeds 24% year over year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifASCENIV revenue growth falls below 24% year over year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Updates on SG-001 could show progress in ADMA's pipeline. Good news would boost confidence in future revenue.
Supportive ifADMA shares progress on SG-001 development. They plan to submit a pre-IND meeting package by year-end 2026.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in SG-001 development are expected by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Hitting the $200 million share repurchase target shows strong cash flow. It also shows management cares about shareholders.
Supportive ifADMA completes share repurchases of $200 million by the end of 2026.
Worry ifADMA fails to execute on the $200 million share repurchase target by year-end 2026.
Why it matters: Results at this meeting could prove ASCENIV works well. This would help its market position and future sales.
Supportive ifGood results from the ASCENIV study will be shared at the ACAAI meeting in November 2026.
Worry ifBad or unclear results from the ASCENIV study will be shared at the ACAAI meeting.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$153 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $481 loss on $10,000 · 4.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,271 loss on $10,000 · 62.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.