Automatic Data Processing (ADP)
NASDAQIndustrialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$277.62-2.08%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ADP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 22.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 15.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ADP — credit agreement
Dated 2026-06-26
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 26, 2026, Automatic Data Processing, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), entered into a $5.7 billion 364-Day Credit Agreement (the “364-Day Facility”) and a $3.5 billion Five-Year Credit Agreement (the “Five-Year Facility,” and together with the 364-Day Facility, the “New Facilities”) with a group of lenders (the “Lenders”). The Five-Year Facility contains an accordion feature under which the aggregate commitment can be increased b…
Why it matters: Growth in client funds interest revenue is a significant income source. It reflects effective management of client funds.
Supportive ifClient funds interest revenue reaches $1.54 to $1.56 billion in fiscal 2027.
Worry ifClient funds interest revenue falls below $1.54 billion in fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: Stable client retention shows customers are happy and loyal.
Supportive ifClient revenue retention stays at 92% or more.
Worry ifClient revenue retention drops below 91%.
Why it matters: Margin expansion shows how well ADP controls costs. It affects profits and investor trust.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBIT margin expands by 70 to 90 basis points in Q1.
Worry ifAdjusted EBIT margin fails to expand or contracts in Q1.
Why it matters: A drop in EBIT margin may mean higher costs or problems in efficiency.
Worry ifAdjusted EBIT margin is below 30%.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBIT margin remains at or above 30%.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key for ADP's performance. A miss could signal trouble ahead.
Worry ifQ4 revenue growth reported below 6%.
Less concerning ifQ4 revenue growth meets or exceeds 6%.
Why it matters: Interest income is important for ADP's profits. Lower income may hurt earnings.
Worry ifInterest on funds held for clients reported below $1.340 billion.
Less concerning ifInterest on funds held for clients meets or exceeds $1.340 billion.
Why it matters: New business bookings are crucial for future revenue. A decline could signal challenges.
Worry ifNew business bookings growth is below 4%.
Less concerning ifNew business bookings growth meets or exceeds 4%.
Why it matters: Revenue growth guidance shows ADP's ability to keep its business strong. It affects how investors feel and stock performance.
Supportive ifManagement confirms fiscal 2027 revenue growth of 5% to 6% in the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement cuts its revenue growth forecast for fiscal 2027 to under 5%.
Why it matters: EPS growth reflects profitability. A miss could raise concerns about future earnings.
Worry ifAdjusted diluted EPS growth is below 10%.
Less concerning ifAdjusted diluted EPS growth meets or exceeds 10%.
Why it matters: Management aims for margin growth. Falling short may indicate cost pressures.
Worry ifAdjusted EBIT margin expands by less than 50 basis points.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBIT margin expands by 50 basis points or more.
Why it matters: New business bookings growth is key for ADP's revenue outlook. A strong performance reflects demand for their services.
Supportive ifEmployer Services new business bookings growth of 4% to 7% in Q1.
Worry ifNew business bookings growth falls below 4% in Q1.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$113 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $251 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,548 loss on $10,000 · 35.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.