Automatic Data Processing (ADP)
NASDAQIndustrialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$307.14+1.19%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ADP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 33.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 28.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 35 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ADP — credit agreement
Dated 2026-06-26
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 26, 2026, Automatic Data Processing, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), entered into a $5.7 billion 364-Day Credit Agreement (the “364-Day Facility”) and a $3.5 billion Five-Year Credit Agreement (the “Five-Year Facility,” and together with the 364-Day Facility, the “New Facilities”) with a group of lenders (the “Lenders”). The Five-Year Facility contains an accordion feature under which the aggregate commitment can be increased b…
Why it matters: ADP raised its revenue growth view to about 6%. Results above that level would extend its strong start.
Supportive ifFiscal 2027 revenue growth is above 6%, with Employer Services growth also above its 6% outlook.
Worry ifFiscal 2027 revenue growth falls below 6% or ADP cuts its outlook.
Why it matters: ADP's U.S. pays per control grew 2% in the first quarter. Weaker job data could test its worker growth outlook.
Watch forThe Nov. 6 and Dec. 4 Employment Situation reports both show rising payrolls, while ADP keeps its roughly 1% pays-per-control outlook.
Also watch forBoth reports show falling payrolls, and ADP cuts its roughly 1% pays-per-control outlook.
Why it matters: Bookings can show whether new client demand supports future growth. ADP's fiscal 2027 outlook calls for 4% to 7% growth.
Worry ifEmployer Services new business bookings growth is below 4% for fiscal 2027, or ADP cuts its 4% to 7% outlook.
Less concerning ifBookings growth reaches at least 4% and stays within or above the 4% to 7% outlook.
Why it matters: Interest from client funds adds to revenue. ADP raised its fiscal 2027 outlook to $1.59 billion to $1.61 billion.
Worry ifFiscal 2027 interest on funds held for clients is below $1.59 billion, or ADP cuts its $1.59 billion to $1.61 billion outlook.
Less concerning ifFiscal 2027 client funds interest reaches at least $1.59 billion, with average balances up 4% to 5%.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$108 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $261 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,847 loss on $10,000 · 28.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: ADP says it is adding AI to products, service, and sales. Clear results would show whether that work is helping clients or staff.
Supportive ifADP reports a clear AI product or service launch and a measurable result, such as more use or faster service.
Worry ifADP reports no measurable AI product or service result in its next update, or says AI work has slowed.
Why it matters: This measure tracks paid workers on ADP's U.S. payroll platform. Slower growth would weaken a key sign of client and job growth.
Worry ifU.S. pays per control growth falls below 1% or ADP cuts its fiscal 2027 outlook of about 1%.
Less concerning ifU.S. pays per control grows at or above 1%, in line with the fiscal 2027 outlook.