Automatic Data Processing (ADP)
NASDAQIndustrialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-07-08
$241.37-1.72%
Close 2026-07-08 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 14 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $241.37. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $246 ADP trades at 23× p/e, below its 31× p/e peer median, but our blended $240 fair value is roughly in line with the price. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $190–$270. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $240.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $328.47 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $337.74 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $97.96 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$190.00 – $270.00 (median $240.00) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-05-10
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 45% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 12.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $10.75/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $61.74 |
| — |
| — |
| TTM |
| high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $85.28 | 30.9 | 2.76 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $307.96 | 18.7 | 16.60 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $358.14 | 28.0 | 12.80 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $331.84 | 30.9 | 10.74 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $189.04 | 3.5 | 53.67 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $423.40 | 39.4 | 10.74 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $50.88 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $285.88 | 26.6 | 10.74 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $347.61 | 30.9 | 11.25 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $125.87 | 30.9 | 4.07 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $544.69 | 28.0 | 19.46 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $384.29 | 30.9 | 12.44 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $206.24 | 3.5 | 58.55 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $490.31 | 39.4 | 12.44 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $331.06 | 26.6 | 12.44 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $163.16 | 30.9 | 5.28 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $720.36 | 28.0 | 25.74 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $399.81 | 30.9 | 12.94 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $214.57 | 3.5 | 60.92 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $510.12 | 39.4 | 12.94 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $344.44 | 26.6 | 12.94 | Analyst | high |