Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Addus HomeCare Corp. (ADUS)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$126.81-0.88%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
7.51 → 7.54 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ADUS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Improve operating income by enhancing efficiency | Profit rises with better efficiency, shown by $34.1M operating income in Q1. | Intact | Operating income falls below $30M next year | Operating income: $39.818M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $34M operating income. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 202639,818,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ADUS is a healthcare growth business combining acquisitions with organic expansion, meaning growth within its existing operations. Its long-term thesis is intact: recent financial performance remains strong, earnings quality is robust, and management is stable, though a CEO transition adds some uncertainty.
The evidence describes ADUS as cheap versus peers, while its priced-in tag is justified and fragility is low. The expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting expectations may be ahead of the model; the valuation picture is therefore not an unqualified bargain.
Near-term results have been strong: second-quarter revenue rose 8.0% year over year, and adjusted EBITDA, a measure of operating earnings, rose 11.9%. Organic growth and rate increases are on track, while efficiency is supporting operating income; acquisitions are expanding reach, but their contribution is mixed. Near-term risk is moderate, with guidance, a weaker jobs trend, and a history of a deep miss worth watching.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on management sustaining organic growth and cost discipline while integrating acquisitions. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would challenge the near-term setup, while continued earnings strength among healthcare peers would support the sector backdrop.
For the 1-to-3-year view, ADUS has solid operating momentum and a supportive sector backdrop, but acquisition execution and the next guidance update remain important tests. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Our focus on cost management, operational efficiency, and leverage reduction translated into an 11.9% improvement in adjusted EBITDA and a 25.2% increase in net income over the second quarter last year.” “The demand for high-quality, cost-effective care in the home setting remains strong, and our team continues to execute well on our growth initiatives.”
Grow revenue through acquisitions and market expansion | Addus grows sales about 7.7% yearly through acquisitions. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 6% next year | Revenue growth: 7.02% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 20267.019578 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Importantly, during the quarter we announced a definitive agreement to acquire the personal care division of AccentCare for approximately $275.0 million.” “This transaction will add roughly $280 million in annualized revenue, a nearly 19% expansion of our total revenue base, while substantially expanding our capabilities across key states like Texas, Illinois, California, and Arizona.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Maintain valuation discount to peers | A supporting condition in Addus HomeCare Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is PE below peer median ~30. | Intact | PE rises above peer median without profit growth | P/E (TTM): 19.21x As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 202619.2102 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.48 → $7.54 · observed estimates
$1.59B → $1.62B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $7.48 | $1,591,470,252 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | $7.48 | $1,590,434,160 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-07-26 | $7.48 | $1,590,434,160 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-07-27 | $7.48 | $1,590,434,160 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-07-28 | $7.48 | $1,590,434,160 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-07-29 | $7.48 | $1,590,434,160 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-07-30 | $7.48 | $1,590,434,160 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-07-31 | $7.48 | $1,590,434,160 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-01 | $7.48 | $1,590,434,160 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-02 | $7.48 | $1,590,434,160 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-03 | $7.48 | $1,590,434,160 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-04 | $7.48 | $1,590,434,160 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-05 | $7.50 | $1,589,812,570 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-06 | $7.50 | $1,589,812,570 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-07 | $7.52 | $1,597,370,490 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-08 | $7.50 | $1,598,266,830 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-09 | $7.50 | $1,598,266,830 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-10 | $7.50 | $1,598,266,830 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-11 | $7.52 | $1,599,031,904 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | $7.52 | $1,599,031,904 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $7.52 | $1,599,016,520 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-14 | $7.52 | $1,599,031,904 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-15 | $7.52 | $1,599,031,904 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-16 | $7.52 | $1,599,031,904 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-17 | $7.52 | $1,599,031,904 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-18 | $7.52 | $1,599,031,904 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-19 | $7.52 | $1,599,031,904 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-20 | $7.52 | $1,599,016,519 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-21 | $7.52 | $1,599,016,519 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-22 | $7.52 | $1,599,016,519 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-23 | $7.52 | $1,599,016,519 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-24 | $7.52 | $1,599,016,519 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-25 | $7.52 | $1,599,016,519 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-26 | $7.52 | $1,599,016,519 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-27 | $7.52 | $1,599,016,519 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-28 | $7.52 | $1,599,016,519 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-29 | $7.52 | $1,599,016,519 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-30 | $7.52 | $1,599,016,519 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-31 | $7.52 | $1,599,016,519 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-01 | $7.52 | $1,599,016,519 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-02 | $7.52 | $1,598,988,442 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-03 | $7.52 | $1,598,988,442 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-04 | $7.52 | $1,598,988,442 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-05 | $7.52 | $1,598,988,442 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-06 | $7.52 | $1,598,988,442 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-07 | $7.52 | $1,598,988,442 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-08 | $7.52 | $1,598,988,442 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-09 | $7.52 | $1,598,988,442 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-10 | $7.52 | $1,598,988,442 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-11 | $7.52 | $1,598,988,442 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $7.52 | $1,598,988,442 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-13 | $7.52 | $1,598,988,442 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-14 | $7.52 | $1,598,988,442 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-15 | $7.52 | $1,598,988,442 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-16 | $7.51 | $1,597,840,873 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-17 | $7.51 | $1,597,840,873 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-18 | $7.51 | $1,597,840,873 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-19 | $7.51 | $1,597,840,873 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-20 | $7.51 | $1,597,840,873 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-21 | $7.51 | $1,597,840,873 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-22 | $7.51 | $1,597,840,873 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-23 | $7.51 | $1,597,840,873 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-24 | $7.51 | $1,597,840,873 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-25 | $7.51 | $1,597,840,873 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-26 | $7.51 | $1,597,840,873 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-27 | $7.51 | $1,597,840,873 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-28 | $7.51 | $1,597,840,873 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-29 | $7.51 | $1,597,853,181 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-30 | $7.51 | $1,597,853,181 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-01 | $7.51 | $1,597,853,181 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $7.51 | $1,597,853,181 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $7.51 | $1,597,853,181 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $7.51 | $1,597,853,181 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $7.51 | $1,597,853,181 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $7.51 | $1,597,853,181 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $7.54 | $1,614,560,950 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $7.54 | $1,614,560,950 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $7.54 | $1,614,560,950 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $7.54 | $1,614,560,950 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $7.54 | $1,614,560,950 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $7.54 | $1,614,560,950 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $7.54 | $1,614,560,950 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $7.54 | $1,614,560,950 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $7.54 | $1,614,560,950 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $7.54 | $1,614,560,950 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $7.54 | $1,614,560,950 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $7.54 | $1,614,560,950 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $7.54 | $1,614,560,950 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $7.54 | $1,614,560,950 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $7.54 | $1,614,560,950 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $7.54 | $1,614,560,950 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $7.54 | $1,614,560,950 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $7.54 | $1,614,560,950 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $7.54 | $1,614,560,950 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $7.54 | $1,614,560,950 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $7.54 | $1,614,560,950 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $7.54 | $1,616,714,796 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $7.54 | $1,616,714,796 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $7.54 | $1,616,714,796 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $7.54 | $1,616,714,796 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $7.54 | $1,616,714,796 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $7.54 | $1,616,714,796 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $7.54 | $1,616,714,796 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $7.54 | $1,616,858,181 | 8 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.