Addus HomeCare Corp. (ADUS)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$118.76+0.06%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ADUS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 1.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 26 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ADUS — CEO transition
Dated 2026-08-13
President and COO — Heather Dixon: The President and COO departed the company, representing a loss of a senior executive.
Why it matters: Stable hiring is crucial for maintaining service quality and meeting demand. Changes could impact growth.
Watch forHiring trends are steady or getting better. This helps with service delivery.
Also watch forHiring trends are getting worse. This causes problems with service delivery.
Why it matters: Finishing this acquisition would help Addus grow its market and increase revenue.
Supportive ifThe second Indiana acquisition will be announced by the end of 2026.
Worry ifNo news or delays in the acquisition process after 2026.
Why it matters: Stable hiring trends are vital for maintaining service quality. This impacts client satisfaction and revenue.
Supportive ifHiring trends are stable with no major issues reported in Q2 2026.
Worry ifReports show major issues in hiring trends in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Acquisitions help the company grow. Good integration can increase revenue.
Supportive ifA new acquisition has been announced. It can bring in more revenue.
Worry ifNo new acquisitions have been announced. There may be issues from recent acquisitions.
Why it matters: New acquisitions could help reach more customers and make more money. This matches management's goal to grow through acquisitions.
Supportive ifLook for news about more acquisitions in Indiana that increase market presence.
Worry ifNo new acquisitions announced in Indiana by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Heather Dixon's departure may change company strategy and execution. Investors need to watch this.
Worry ifBrad Bickham's interim leadership keeps operations stable. There is no disruption in growth.
Less concerning ifThere may be operational problems. Growth may slow with interim leadership.
Why it matters: Stable hiring trends are important for service quality and demand.
Supportive ifHiring trends do not show big declines despite seasonal changes.
Worry ifHiring trends show a clear decline or higher turnover rates.
Why it matters: This acquisition will help Addus reach more customers in Indiana. It supports their growth plans.
Supportive ifThe acquisition is done and announced. It is expected to bring in about $9.7 million.
Worry ifThe acquisition fails to close or is delayed beyond the expected timeline.
Why it matters: A slowdown in revenue growth could signal weakening demand or operational issues. This would be a shift from the recent trend of 8.0% growth.
Worry ifQ3 net service revenues growth reported below 7.5% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 net service revenues growth reported above 7.5% year over year.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps with acquisitions and investments. This is important for growth.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations exceeds $52 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash flow from operations falls below $50 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Home health revenue is going down. It needs to improve for overall growth.
Worry ifHome health revenue increases from $16.732 million in Q1 2026 to above $18 million in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifHome health revenue declines further or remains below $16 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Strong EBITDA growth shows good efficiency and profit. This is important for investor trust.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA growth is more than 10% each year.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA growth is less than 10% each year.
Why it matters: Changes in payment rates can impact revenue a lot. Good changes can help profits.
Supportive ifNew reimbursement rates from key states, such as Texas or Illinois, increase by more than 3.9%.
Worry ifReimbursement rates from key states drop or stay the same.
Why it matters: This acquisition is key for expanding Addus's market reach. Successful integration could enhance growth.
Supportive ifThe Indiana deal is done as planned. It will bring in more money.
Worry ifThe Indiana acquisition faces delays or fails to close.
Why it matters: Strong organic growth in personal care shows demand for home care services. It supports revenue growth and management's strategy.
Supportive ifIn Q3, personal care revenue grows more than 6.5% compared to last year.
Worry ifIn Q3, personal care revenue grows less than 6.5% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Acquisitions are key to expanding market reach and increasing revenue. New deals can signal growth potential.
Supportive ifIn Q3, the company announces more acquisitions. This makes the market denser.
Worry ifNo new acquisitions announced in Q3 despite previous plans.
Why it matters: Better adjusted EBITDA shows the company is managing costs well. It shows financial health.
Supportive ifIn Q3, adjusted EBITDA grows more than 11.9% compared to last year.
Worry ifIn Q3, adjusted EBITDA grows less than 11.9% compared to last year.
Why it matters: A senior executive leaving can change how the company works. This can show if the company is stable or has problems.
Watch forAfter the change, performance metrics get better. There is no disruption.
Also watch forAfter the leadership change, performance metrics drop or show problems.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$111 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $259 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,791 loss on $10,000 · 27.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.