Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Advanced Energy (AEIS)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$185.66-12.24%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
15.19 → 17.93 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AEIS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain quarterly dividends near $3.8 million | The company maintains dividends near $3.8 million quarterly. | Intact | Quarterly dividends fall below $3.5 million | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
AEIS looks like an improving industrial technology business, rather than a proven durable compounder or a clear turnaround. Its long-term thesis is intact, but confidence has eased to medium and the evidence on revenue growth remains limited.
The valuation evidence is mixed: AEIS is described as cheap versus peers, yet it also carries a sizable premium to peers, and model confidence is low. The expectations gap is negative, while the priced-in assessment calls the setup justified rather than highly fragile.
Near term, recent financial performance is strong, with operating income and operating margin improving through 2026-Q2; management’s operating-income priority is on track. Revenue growth remains a priority to watch, and a past deep earnings miss plus a downward trend in earnings surprises make guidance and execution important risks.
The unfavorable case is a guidance cut on the next call, which would matter given the tendency for estimates to be revised down after weaker guidance. The favorable case depends partly on rate cuts from the current 3.88% level and stabilization among technology peers, while sustained operating improvement would support the multi-year thesis.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on turning recent operating gains into steadier growth while managing fragile earnings quality and elevated risk. The setup is mixed, and confidence is medium. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Operating income rose to $68.3 million in Q1, showing better profit. |
| Under Pressure |
| Operating income falls below $60 million next year |
Operating income: $143.2M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $68 million operating income. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 2, 2026143,200,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““In the first quarter, we achieved a key strategic milestone by delivering non-GAAP gross margin above 40%,” said Steve Kelley, president and CEO of Advanced Energy.” ““In 2025, we delivered strong revenue growth and meaningfully improved gross and operating margins, reflecting the benefits of our diversification strategy and execution of our operational initiatives.” Operating income was $95.100 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Sustain revenue growth near 25% YoY | A primary condition in Advanced Energy's published investment case. The stated target is >=25% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 20% next year | Revenue growth: 50.31% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=25% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 2, 202650.312972 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““Our strategic investments and solid execution are enabling us to meet strengthening customer demand and deliver higher gross margin.” ““Demand continues to strengthen across all of our markets, and we believe that our solid execution and strategic investments will enable profitable growth into 2027.” Revenue was $574.100 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$12.29 → $17.93 · observed estimates
$2.70B → $3.31B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $12.29 | $2,699,421,900 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-25 | $12.29 | $2,699,421,900 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-26 | $12.29 | $2,699,421,900 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-27 | $12.29 | $2,699,388,489 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $12.29 | $2,699,421,900 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-29 | $12.29 | $2,699,421,900 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-30 | $12.29 | $2,699,421,900 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-31 | $12.29 | $2,699,421,900 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-01 | $12.29 | $2,699,421,900 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-02 | $12.29 | $2,699,421,900 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-03 | $12.29 | $2,699,388,489 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $12.29 | $2,699,421,900 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-05 | $14.35 | $2,921,209,270 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-06 | $14.35 | $2,921,209,270 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-07 | $15.19 | $3,008,809,268 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $15.19 | $3,008,817,600 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-09 | $15.19 | $3,008,817,600 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-10 | $15.19 | $3,008,817,600 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-11 | $15.19 | $3,008,809,268 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $15.19 | $3,008,817,600 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-13 | $15.19 | $3,008,817,600 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-14 | $15.19 | $3,008,809,268 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $15.19 | $3,008,809,268 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $15.19 | $3,008,809,268 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $15.19 | $3,008,809,268 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $15.19 | $3,008,809,268 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $15.19 | $3,008,809,268 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $15.19 | $3,008,809,268 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $15.19 | $3,008,809,268 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $15.19 | $3,008,809,268 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $15.19 | $3,008,809,268 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $15.19 | $3,008,809,268 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $15.19 | $3,008,809,268 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $15.19 | $3,008,817,601 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $15.19 | $3,008,817,601 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $15.19 | $3,008,817,601 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $15.19 | $3,008,817,601 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $15.19 | $3,008,817,601 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $15.19 | $3,008,817,601 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $15.19 | $3,008,817,601 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $15.19 | $3,008,817,601 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $15.19 | $3,008,817,601 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $15.19 | $3,008,817,601 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $15.19 | $3,008,817,601 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $15.19 | $3,008,817,601 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $15.19 | $3,008,817,601 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $15.19 | $3,008,817,601 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $15.19 | $3,008,817,601 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $15.19 | $3,008,817,601 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $15.19 | $3,008,817,601 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $15.19 | $3,008,817,601 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $15.19 | $3,008,817,601 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $15.19 | $3,008,817,601 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $15.19 | $3,008,817,601 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $15.19 | $3,008,817,601 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $15.19 | $3,008,817,601 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $15.19 | $3,008,817,601 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $15.19 | $3,008,817,601 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $15.19 | $3,008,817,601 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $15.19 | $3,008,817,601 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $15.19 | $3,008,817,601 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $15.19 | $3,008,817,601 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $15.19 | $3,008,817,601 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $15.19 | $3,008,817,601 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $15.19 | $3,008,817,601 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $15.19 | $3,008,817,601 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $15.19 | $3,008,817,601 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $15.19 | $3,008,817,601 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $15.19 | $3,008,817,601 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $15.19 | $3,008,817,601 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $15.19 | $3,008,817,601 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $15.19 | $3,008,817,601 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $15.19 | $3,008,817,601 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $15.19 | $3,008,817,601 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $15.19 | $3,008,817,601 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $15.19 | $3,008,850,935 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $15.19 | $3,008,817,601 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $15.19 | $3,008,817,601 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $15.28 | $3,015,984,268 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $15.28 | $3,015,984,268 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $15.28 | $3,015,984,268 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $15.28 | $3,015,984,268 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $15.28 | $3,015,984,268 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $15.28 | $3,015,984,268 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $15.28 | $3,015,984,268 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $15.28 | $3,015,984,268 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $15.28 | $3,015,967,585 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $15.28 | $3,015,967,585 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $15.36 | $3,023,692,585 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $15.36 | $3,023,692,585 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $15.36 | $3,023,694,370 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $15.36 | $3,023,694,370 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $15.36 | $3,023,694,370 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $15.36 | $3,023,694,370 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $15.36 | $3,023,694,370 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $15.36 | $3,023,694,370 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $15.39 | $3,024,856,437 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $15.39 | $3,024,856,437 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $15.39 | $3,024,856,437 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $15.39 | $3,024,856,437 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $15.39 | $3,024,856,437 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $15.54 | $3,024,856,437 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $15.53 | $3,042,339,770 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $17.93 | $3,305,023,175 | 9 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 5 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.