American Electric Power (AEP)
NASDAQUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-09-04
$124.50-0.17%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AEP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 11.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 31 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AEP — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-30
Results of Operations and Financial Condition The information, including the exhibit attached hereto, in this Current Report is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. The information in this Current Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, except as otherwi…
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this earnings target would confirm the raised full-year guidance and strong demand.
Supportive ifQ3 operating earnings reported at or above $1.60 per share.
Worry ifQ3 operating earnings were below $1.60 per share.
Why it matters: Texas load growth is critical for AEP's future earnings. It shows demand from large customers.
Supportive ifAEP reports new load agreements in Texas exceeding 41 GW.
Worry ifLoad agreements in Texas fall below 41 GW.
Why it matters: These tariffs could bring in more money. They may also help customers pay for services.
Supportive ifRegulators approve large load tariffs in more states.
Worry ifRegulators deny or delay large load tariffs.
Why it matters: Updates may show AEP's focus on growth and future earnings.
Watch forAEP announces new investments or projects beyond the $78 billion plan.
Also watch forAEP delays or reduces the scope of the $78 billion capital plan.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$86 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $183 loss on $10,000 · 1.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,280 loss on $10,000 · 12.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: New tariffs might change AEP's ability to control costs and keep prices low.
Watch forNew tariffs that make large load customers pay for infrastructure are approved.
Also watch forNew tariffs may face rejection or delays in their rollout.
Why it matters: Regulatory progress affects AEP's ability to invest and grow. Good results can boost earnings.
Supportive ifWatch for AEP to get good approvals from regulators in Indiana, Ohio, or Texas.
Worry ifWatch for AEP to face problems with regulators in key states.
Why it matters: Updates on the capital plan show AEP's focus on growth and infrastructure.
Watch forManagement talks about new projects or investments. These are part of the $78 billion plan.
Also watch forManagement delays or cuts back on the $78 billion capital plan.
Why it matters: Clear rules will affect AEP's ability to connect new loads. This matters for growth.
Watch forTexas Senate Bill 6 is in place, speeding up interconnection times.
Also watch forThere are delays or issues with Texas Senate Bill 6.
Why it matters: Confirming guidance shows trust in earnings growth. It also shows stability.
Supportive ifAEP reaffirms its operating earnings guidance of $6.25 to $6.55 per share for 2026.
Worry ifAEP lowers its operating earnings guidance below $6.25 per share.
Why it matters: The bill may clarify timing for new load growth. This could affect AEP's growth plans.
Supportive ifNew load agreements were confirmed. They total over 63 GW with signed contracts.
Worry ifThere may be delays or no new load agreements after the bill is implemented.
Why it matters: Exceeding this target would indicate strong demand and support future earnings growth.
Supportive ifAEP announces new load agreements bringing total contracted load to over 69 GW.
Worry ifTotal contracted load remains at or below 69 GW.
Why it matters: Management's guidance shows they are confident in performance and growth. This means stability.
Supportive ifManagement confirms 2026 earnings guidance of $6.25 to $6.55 per share.
Worry ifManagement lowers 2026 earnings guidance to below $6.25 per share.
Why it matters: Growing contracted load supports revenue and reflects demand for AEP's services. It indicates market strength.
Supportive ifContracted load growth reaches 69 GW through signed agreements with customers.
Worry ifContracted load growth fails to reach 69 GW by year-end 2026.