Atlas Energy Solutions, Inc. (AESI)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$13.46+2.20%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AESI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 28.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 14.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AESI — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-03
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 3, 2026, Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release providing information regarding earnings for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.
Why it matters: Weather problems could increase costs and hurt performance.
Worry ifQ2 results show minimal impact from weather disruptions.
Less concerning ifQ2 results show big operational problems due to weather.
Why it matters: This report will give details about money performance and how the company is doing.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth compared to Q1 2026.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue decline compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Progress on this agreement could unlock significant new revenue streams for Atlas. It is a key growth driver.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of new contracts or projects stemming from the agreement.
Worry ifNo updates or contracts announced within the next quarter.
Why it matters: A negative reaction could show worries about profits and growth.
Worry ifStock price stays the same or goes up after the earnings miss.
Less concerning ifStock price drops a lot after the earnings miss announcement.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$226 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $625 loss on $10,000 · 6.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,846 loss on $10,000 · 48.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Cutting losses shows progress in solving financial issues.
Supportive ifNet income loss reported at less than $30 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNet income loss is over $40 million, showing worse financial conditions.
Why it matters: Doing this well would boost Atlas's growth in the power market.
Supportive ifLook for news of new contracts or projects from the agreement.
Worry ifNo new contracts or deployments announced within six months.
Why it matters: Better cash flow is key for financial health and stability.
Supportive ifCash from operations turns positive and rises from $0.553 million.
Worry ifCash from operations stays negative or drops more.
Why it matters: Meeting this target would show better profits and efficiency.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA was about $50 million for Q2 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA falls below $45 million for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in proppant sales is important for Atlas's revenue and market position.
Supportive ifProppant sales volumes rise year over year, reversing the current drop.
Worry ifProppant sales volumes continue to decline year over year.
Why it matters: This contract is key for Atlas's growth in power generation. It shows demand for their services.
Supportive ifThe 120 MW behind-the-meter contract goes live by the end of Q1 2027.
Worry ifThe contract faces delays or fails to go live as planned.