Affinity Bancshares Inc (AFBI)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$23.000.00%
Close 2026-08-10 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AFBI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -53.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 64.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of — · Company calendar date is not available
AFBI — litigation filed
Dated 2026-07-22
Other Events As previously announced, on March 30, 2026, Affinity Bancshares, Inc. (the “Company”) and Affinity Bank, National Association (“Affinity Bank” and, together with the Company, “Affinity”), Fidelity BancShares (N.C.), Inc. (“Fidelity BancShares”), The Fidelity Bank (“Fidelity Bank”) and TFB Merger Subsidiary, Inc., a North Carolina corporation that will be formed as a wholly owned subsidiary of Fidelity Bank to facilitate the merger (“Merger Sub,” and together with Fidelity BancSha…
Why it matters: Slower asset growth could indicate weakening demand for loans and deposits. This would raise concerns about future earnings.
Worry ifTotal assets grow less than $40 million in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifTotal assets grow by more than $40 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: This program could signal management's confidence in the company's value and future. It may also support share price.
Supportive ifA public announcement that the share repurchase program has started.
Worry ifNo announcement or more delays in starting the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: Continued growth in net income shows strong earnings performance. It can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 net income exceeds $2.3 million, showing growth from Q1 2026.
Worry ifIn Q2 2026, net income drops below $2.3 million. This shows possible earnings issues.
Why it matters: The net interest margin impacts profits. A drop may show trouble managing interest income and costs.
Worry ifNet interest margin drops below 3.50% in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin stays steady or goes above 3.50% in Q2 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$5 on $10,000 · ±0.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $168 loss on $10,000 · 1.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,724 loss on $10,000 · 17.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Net interest margin affects how much money a company makes. Changes can show shifts in loan demand or deposit costs.
Watch forNet interest margin rises above 3.50%. This shows that the company is making more money.
Also watch forNet interest margin falls below 3.50%. This may show potential problems.
Why it matters: The results of the cases could affect the company's money and image. Investors may worry about possible costs.
Worry ifA court decision helps Affinity Bancshares in its legal case.
Less concerning ifA court decision hurts Affinity Bancshares. This may lead to money penalties.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can change company plans. Stability builds trust with investors.
Watch forHiring or promoting a new leader can make leadership more stable.
Also watch forMore delays or problems in the executive change process.
Why it matters: A drop below this level may show a slowdown in finance. This affects overall performance.
Worry ifReported revenue growth falls below 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains at or above 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Lawsuit results can affect financial health and investor trust. This can show future risks.
Worry ifA positive outcome or settlement of the lawsuit that lowers financial risk.
Less concerning ifBad news in the lawsuit could lead to more costs.