Affinity Bancshares Inc (AFBI)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
$23.000.00%
Close 2026-08-10 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AFBI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -53.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 64.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of — · Company calendar date is not available
AFBI — litigation filed
Dated 2026-07-22
Other Events As previously announced, on March 30, 2026, Affinity Bancshares, Inc. (the “Company”) and Affinity Bank, National Association (“Affinity Bank” and, together with the Company, “Affinity”), Fidelity BancShares (N.C.), Inc. (“Fidelity BancShares”), The Fidelity Bank (“Fidelity Bank”) and TFB Merger Subsidiary, Inc., a North Carolina corporation that will be formed as a wholly owned subsidiary of Fidelity Bank to facilitate the merger (“Merger Sub,” and together with Fidelity BancSha…
Why it matters: Non-performing loans fell to $3.5 million in Q1. A rise above the prior quarter's $3.6 million would reverse that improvement.
Worry ifNon-performing loans top $3.6 million in a quarterly report.
Less concerning ifNon-performing loans stay at or below $3.5 million in the next quarterly report.
Why it matters: The company lists a share repurchase program as a priority to watch. A launch would show that the plan moved forward.
Supportive ifThe company starts a share buyback plan and says how many shares it bought.
Worry ifThe company reports no program or no shares bought in its next two quarterly reports.
Why it matters: The margin was 3.50% in Q1, down from 3.52% a year earlier. A further drop could weigh on bank earnings.
Worry ifA quarterly net interest margin print is below 3.50%.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin is at or above 3.50% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: These loan types drove Q1 loan growth. A decline would weaken the bank's recent growth signal.
Worry ifTotal gross loans fall below $751.8 million. The company also reports fewer commercial and construction loans.
Less concerning ifTotal gross loans rise above $751.8 million, with commercial or construction loans higher.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$5 on $10,000 · ±0.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $186 loss on $10,000 · 1.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,724 loss on $10,000 · 17.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Net income rose to $2.3 million in Q1, from $2.1 million in Q4. Another strong quarter would support the stated earnings goal.
Supportive ifQuarterly net income is above $2.1 million again.
Worry ifQuarterly net income falls below $2.1 million.