Aflac (AFL)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - LifeSnapshot 2026-09-04
$117.21-0.97%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - LifeSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AFL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 17.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -5.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AFL — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, Aflac Incorporated (the "Company") issued a press release dated August 6, 2026 in which it reported the Company's 2026 second quarter financial results. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated by reference herein in its entirety. In addition, a copy of the Company's second quarter supplemental earnings materials is furnished as Exhibit 99.2 to this Current Rep…
Why it matters: A decline greater than this could indicate weakening demand or operational issues. It would raise concerns about future growth.
Worry ifTotal revenues in Q3 fall below $3.9 billion, which is a 5% decline from Q2.
Less concerning ifTotal revenues in Q3 are above $3.9 billion. This shows revenue is stable.
Why it matters: News about share buybacks would show Aflac's plan to return money to shareholders.
Supportive ifAflac announces a share repurchase program of at least $800 million for Q2 2026.
Worry ifAflac does not announce any share repurchase program for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, profits may weaken. This could hurt investor trust.
Worry ifQ2 2026 adjusted earnings per share reported below $1.75.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 adjusted earnings per share reported at or above $1.75.
Why it matters: Updates on capital return plans show how well Aflac is doing. They focus on their shareholders.
Watch forAflac announces a share buyback plan over $800 million in the next quarter.
Also watch forAflac reduces or halts share repurchase plans.
Why it matters: A big drop in net investment income shows problems in managing assets. This could hurt earnings.
Worry ifNet investment income in Q3 declines more than 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifNet investment income in Q3 remains stable or increases year over year.
Why it matters: Changes in dividends or share buybacks could affect investor trust and stock performance.
Watch forDividend increases or share buybacks go over $1 billion in the next quarter.
Also watch forNo dividend increase or share repurchases below $500 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Falling revenues may mean less demand. This could hurt future growth.
Worry ifTotal revenues in Q2 2026 were below $4.3 billion.
Less concerning ifTotal revenues in Q2 2026 reported at or above $4.3 billion.
Why it matters: A decline beyond this threshold would signal potential issues in the U.S. market and affect overall growth.
Worry ifU.S. net earned premiums decline more than 2% from $1.54 billion.
Less concerning ifU.S. net earned premiums increase or remain stable year over year.
Why it matters: Negative growth may show a change in Aflac's business after a recent earnings miss.
Worry ifQ3 total revenues decline year over year worse than -1%.
Less concerning ifQ3 total revenues increase year over year.
Why it matters: Aflac Japan's premium growth is crucial for overall revenue. A lack of growth may signal deeper issues.
Worry ifAflac Japan's net earned premiums grow at least 2% year over year in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifAflac Japan's net earned premiums decline more than 3% year over year in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A big rise shows good use of money and that management believes in the business.
Supportive ifShare repurchases exceed $1 billion in the next quarter.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall below $800 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A fall in adjusted earnings per share may mean less profit. This can hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifAdjusted earnings per share falls below $1.75 in the next earnings report.
Less concerning ifAdjusted earnings per share increases above $1.80 in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights into revenue and profit trends. Investors will assess the company's growth trajectory.
Watch forEarnings per share is over $1.75. This shows strong performance.
Also watch forEarnings per share falls below $1.50, suggesting weaker results.
Why it matters: Raising dividends would show Aflac cares about giving value to shareholders. This can boost positive feelings.
Supportive ifThe Board announces a dividend increase above $0.61 for Q2 2026.
Worry ifThe Board keeps the dividend at $0.61 or lowers it for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Strong sales growth in Japan shows that new products are working. This could help investors feel more confident.
Supportive ifNew annual premium sales in Japan are over ¥20 billion.
Worry ifNew annual premium sales in Japan are below ¥17 billion.
Why it matters: A drop in adjusted earnings shows ongoing problems with making money and growing.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted earnings fall below $883 million, which was reported in Q2.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted earnings are over $883 million. This shows a recovery in making money.
Why it matters: Strong sales growth in these products is key for Aflac's long-term plans and profits.
Supportive ifSales of third sector products increase by more than 25% year over year.
Worry ifSales of third sector products decline or grow less than 20% year over year.
Why it matters: An increase would show Aflac's promise to give money back to shareholders.
Supportive ifAflac announces a dividend increase above $0.61 per share.
Worry ifAflac maintains the dividend at $0.61 or reduces it.
Why it matters: Legal problems could hurt Aflac Japan's work and how investors feel.
Worry ifAflac Japan wins the lawsuit without major financial harm.
Less concerning ifLawsuits can lead to fines or problems with operations.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$76 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $169 loss on $10,000 · 1.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,058 loss on $10,000 · 10.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.