Aflac (AFL)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - LifeSnapshot 2026-11-04
$126.24+0.75%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - LifeSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AFL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 25.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -5.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 31.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 6 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AFL — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, Aflac Incorporated (the "Company") issued a press release dated August 6, 2026 in which it reported the Company's 2026 second quarter financial results. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated by reference herein in its entirety. In addition, a copy of the Company's second quarter supplemental earnings materials is furnished as Exhibit 99.2 to this Current Rep…
Why it matters: U.S. premiums grew in Q2, but claims rose faster. A lower claims share could help restore the segment's profit margin.
Watch forQ3 benefits and claims are below 49.5% of U.S. net earned premiums, the Q2 level.
Also watch forQ3 benefits and claims remain at or above 49.5% of U.S. net earned premiums, and the pretax margin stays below 22.5%.
Why it matters: The U.S. margin fell to 20.9% in Q2 from 22.5% a year earlier. Another drop would add to pressure from higher claims.
Worry ifThe Q3 U.S. pretax adjusted profit margin falls below 20.9%.
Less concerning ifThe Q3 U.S. pretax adjusted profit margin is 20.9% or higher.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$72 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $171 loss on $10,000 · 1.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,418 loss on $10,000 · 14.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.