Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Aflac (AFL)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - LifeSnapshot 2026-11-04
$126.24+0.75%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - LifeSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
7.56 → 7.63 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AFL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Shareholder confidence and capital allocation | A supporting condition in Aflac's published investment case. The stated target is No further major shareholder sell-offs or capital allocation concerns. | Intact | Significant additional sales by major shareholders | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
AFL is a mature financial business with a durable premium, supported by strong recent results and steady capital returns. Its long-term thesis is intact, but confidence is medium after a recent earnings miss and a decline in evidence confidence.
AFL trades at a durable premium to peers, while the expectations gap is 0.29, indicating the market already reflects meaningful expectations. The evidence rates value as neutral and priced-in fragility as low, so the premium is not paired with the full set of conditions that would signal concentrated fragility.
Near term, strong recent financial performance and cash flows support the business, and Japan third-sector product sales have grown across recent reported periods. A recent earnings miss, a run of consecutive misses, and the risk of guidance cuts temper that picture; the evidence also notes a litigation filing. Over the multi-year view, steady capital and shareholder returns remain management priorities.
A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, and rate cuts from the current level could weigh on AFL and other financial companies. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could support sector momentum. The Japan product strategy and consistent capital management are also important execution markers.
Over the next one to three years, AFL’s thesis rests on strong financial performance continuing while management delivers on Japan growth and capital priorities. The setup is intact, but recent earnings misses and rate sensitivity keep the evidence mixed. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Aflac's published investment case. The stated target is Contain reputational damage and avoid material sales decline. |
| Under Pressure |
| Material sales decline or regulatory penalties in Japan due to breach |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
EPS growth near consensus | Analysts expect earnings per share around $7.04 in 2026. | Broken | EPS falls below $6.5 per share in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $1.63 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=7.0 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 20261.63 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth near consensus | A primary condition in Aflac's published investment case. The stated target is >=-3% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | Revenue growth falls below -6% YoY next year | Revenue growth: -1.03% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=-3% YoY revenue growth. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Aug 7, 2026-1.033654 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.55 → $7.63 · observed estimates
$17.23B → $16.95B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $7.55 | $17,228,908,670 | 14 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $7.55 | $17,276,185,840 | 14 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $7.55 | $17,276,185,840 | 14 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $7.55 | $17,276,185,840 | 14 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $7.55 | $17,276,185,840 | 14 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $7.55 | $17,276,185,840 | 14 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $7.55 | $17,276,185,840 | 14 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $7.55 | $16,799,768,496 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $7.55 | $17,276,185,840 | 14 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $7.55 | $17,276,185,840 | 14 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $7.55 | $17,276,185,840 | 14 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $7.55 | $17,276,185,840 | 14 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $7.55 | $17,276,185,840 | 14 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $7.55 | $17,276,185,840 | 14 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $7.55 | $17,276,185,840 | 14 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $7.56 | $17,276,185,840 | 14 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $7.56 | $17,276,185,840 | 14 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $7.56 | $17,276,185,840 | 14 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $7.55 | $17,276,185,840 | 14 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $7.55 | $17,265,903,520 | 14 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $7.55 | $17,265,903,520 | 14 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $7.55 | $16,799,768,496 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $7.55 | $16,799,768,496 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $7.55 | $16,799,768,496 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $7.55 | $16,799,768,496 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $7.55 | $16,799,768,496 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $7.55 | $16,799,768,496 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $7.55 | $16,799,768,496 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $7.56 | $16,700,954,677 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $7.56 | $16,700,954,677 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $7.57 | $16,669,827,945 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $7.57 | $16,669,827,945 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $7.57 | $16,649,892,636 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $7.55 | $16,649,892,636 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $7.55 | $16,649,892,636 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $7.55 | $16,649,892,636 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $7.55 | $16,757,531,057 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $7.55 | $16,757,531,057 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $7.55 | $16,757,531,057 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $7.55 | $16,757,531,057 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $7.55 | $16,757,531,057 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $7.55 | $16,757,531,057 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $7.55 | $16,757,531,057 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $7.55 | $16,757,531,057 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $7.55 | $16,757,531,057 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $7.55 | $16,757,531,057 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $7.55 | $16,757,531,057 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $7.55 | $16,757,531,057 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $7.55 | $16,757,531,057 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $7.55 | $16,757,531,057 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $7.55 | $16,757,531,057 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $7.55 | $16,757,531,057 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $7.55 | $16,757,531,057 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $7.55 | $16,757,531,057 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $7.55 | $16,757,531,057 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $7.55 | $16,757,531,057 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $7.55 | $16,757,531,057 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $7.55 | $16,757,531,057 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $7.55 | $16,757,531,057 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $7.55 | $16,757,531,057 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $7.55 | $16,757,531,057 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $7.55 | $16,757,531,057 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $7.55 | $16,757,531,057 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $7.55 | $16,757,531,057 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $7.55 | $16,757,531,057 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $7.55 | $16,757,531,057 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $7.55 | $16,757,531,057 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $7.56 | $16,820,836,768 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $7.56 | $16,827,903,712 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $7.56 | $16,827,903,712 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $7.56 | $16,827,903,712 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $7.56 | $16,827,903,712 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $7.56 | $16,827,903,712 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $7.56 | $16,827,903,712 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $7.56 | $16,833,556,588 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $7.58 | $16,858,126,661 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $7.58 | $16,858,126,661 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $7.58 | $16,858,126,661 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $7.58 | $16,858,126,661 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $7.58 | $16,858,126,661 | 10 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $7.58 | $16,858,126,661 | 10 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $7.60 | $16,891,234,998 | 10 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $7.61 | $16,891,239,235 | 10 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $7.61 | $16,891,239,235 | 10 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $7.61 | $16,891,239,235 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $7.61 | $16,891,239,235 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $7.62 | $16,919,461,834 | 10 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $7.62 | $16,919,461,834 | 10 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $7.62 | $16,919,461,834 | 10 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $7.62 | $16,919,461,834 | 10 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $7.63 | $16,947,879,109 | 10 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $7.63 | $16,947,879,109 | 10 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $7.63 | $16,947,879,109 | 10 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $7.63 | $16,947,879,109 | 10 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $7.63 | $16,947,879,109 | 10 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $7.63 | $16,947,879,109 | 10 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $7.63 | $16,947,879,109 | 10 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $7.63 | $16,947,879,109 | 10 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $7.63 | $16,947,879,109 | 10 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $7.63 | $16,947,879,109 | 10 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $7.63 | $16,947,879,109 | 10 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $7.63 | $16,947,879,109 | 10 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $7.63 | $16,947,879,109 | 10 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $7.63 | $16,947,879,109 | 10 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 4 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.