Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
Affirm Holdings Inc (AFRM)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$75.59+5.03%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.90 → 2.91 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 14 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AFRM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Increase cash from operations to over $386 million by Q3 2026 | Cash from operations rises strongly to over $386 million by Q3 2026. | Improving | Cash from operations falls below $300M in Q3 2026 | Cash from operations: $296.37M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $386M. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 27, 2026296,370,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
AFRM is a high-risk growth business, not yet a consistent profit story. Its long-term thesis is intact, supported by strong recent performance, though the overall signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.
The valuation is expensive versus peers, with a 3.48 premium measure and a model-confidence rating of low. The evidence points to expectations that include future growth and business optionality, but labels the expectations gap unjustified; fragility is rated low because the expensive valuation is not paired with weak performance and turbulence.
Near-term results show strong volume growth and progress in operating margins and cash generation: GMV grew 35% to $11.6 billion, operating income was positive, and net cash increased. The business remains loss-making overall, and erratic earnings surprises that are trending down are a risk despite a low estimated miss probability and a recent earnings beat.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on maintaining growth while continuing to improve margins and cash generation; a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative. The outlook also depends on rates and sector conditions: the evidence says rate cuts could weigh on Financials, while continued strong results and guidance from V, MA, and AXP could support sector momentum.
For a 1-3 year view, AFRM has credible operating progress and a still-intact thesis, but high business risk and an expensive valuation make sustained execution central. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Improve operating margin to 9.5-11.5% in Q4 2026 |
| A primary condition in Affirm Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= 9.5% and <= 11.5%. |
| Intact |
| Operating margin falls below 7.7% in Q4 2026 |
Operating margin: 12.63% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= 9.5% and <= 11.5%. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Oct 23, 202612.630011 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve approximately $4.2B revenue in fiscal year 2026 | A primary condition in Affirm Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= $4.175B and <= $4.205B. | Intact | Revenue falls below $4.175B or exceeds $4.205B in FY26 | Revenue: $1.09B FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $4.175B and <= $4.205B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 27, 20261,089,676,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.57 → $2.91 · observed estimates
$6.57B → $6.86B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.57 | $6,567,221,678 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.57 | $6,567,221,678 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.58 | $6,586,461,347 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.58 | $6,586,461,347 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.58 | $6,586,461,347 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.58 | $6,586,462,856 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.58 | $6,586,462,856 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.58 | $6,586,462,856 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.58 | $6,586,462,856 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.58 | $6,586,462,856 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.58 | $6,586,462,856 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.58 | $6,586,462,856 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.58 | $6,586,462,856 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.58 | $6,586,462,856 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.58 | $6,586,462,856 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.58 | $6,586,462,856 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.58 | $6,586,462,856 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.58 | $6,586,462,856 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-08-11 | $2.58 | $6,586,462,856 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.58 | $6,586,462,856 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.58 | $6,586,462,856 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.58 | $6,586,462,856 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.58 | $6,586,462,856 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.58 | $6,586,462,856 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.58 | $6,586,462,856 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.58 | $6,586,462,856 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.58 | $6,586,462,856 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.58 | $6,586,462,856 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.58 | $6,595,177,142 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.58 | $6,595,177,142 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.58 | $6,595,177,142 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.58 | $6,595,177,142 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.58 | $6,595,177,141 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.58 | $6,594,742,236 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.58 | $6,594,742,236 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.58 | $6,594,742,236 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.75 | $6,779,754,464 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.75 | $6,779,754,480 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.75 | $6,779,754,480 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.76 | $6,796,263,318 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.76 | $6,796,263,318 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.82 | $6,816,378,756 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.84 | $6,831,320,283 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.87 | $6,833,505,469 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.87 | $6,833,505,469 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.87 | $6,833,505,469 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.87 | $6,833,505,469 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.87 | $6,831,611,070 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.87 | $6,831,611,070 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.87 | $6,831,611,070 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.87 | $6,831,611,070 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.87 | $6,831,611,070 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.87 | $6,831,611,055 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.87 | $6,831,749,270 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.87 | $6,831,749,270 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.88 | $6,835,096,157 | 15 / 21 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.88 | $6,835,096,157 | 15 / 21 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.88 | $6,835,096,157 | 15 / 22 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.88 | $6,835,096,157 | 15 / 22 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.88 | $6,835,096,157 | 15 / 22 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.88 | $6,835,096,157 | 15 / 22 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.89 | $6,835,973,520 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.89 | $6,835,973,520 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.89 | $6,835,973,520 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.89 | $6,835,973,520 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.89 | $6,835,973,520 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.89 | $6,835,973,520 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.89 | $6,835,974,448 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.89 | $6,835,975,105 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.89 | $6,835,975,105 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.90 | $6,841,630,498 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.90 | $6,841,630,498 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.90 | $6,841,630,498 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.90 | $6,841,630,498 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.90 | $6,841,630,498 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.90 | $6,841,630,498 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.90 | $6,841,630,498 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.90 | $6,841,630,498 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.90 | $6,841,630,498 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.90 | $6,841,630,498 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.90 | $6,841,630,498 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.90 | $6,841,630,498 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.89 | $6,841,630,498 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.90 | $6,848,840,266 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.90 | $6,848,840,266 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.90 | $6,848,840,266 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.90 | $6,848,826,779 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.90 | $6,848,826,779 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.90 | $6,848,826,779 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.90 | $6,848,826,779 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.90 | $6,849,443,494 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.90 | $6,849,443,494 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.90 | $6,849,443,494 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.90 | $6,853,918,493 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.90 | $6,853,918,493 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.90 | $6,853,918,493 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.90 | $6,854,688,545 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.90 | $6,854,688,545 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.90 | $6,854,688,545 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.91 | $6,855,165,707 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.91 | $6,855,165,707 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.91 | $6,855,165,707 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.91 | $6,855,166,406 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.91 | $6,855,166,406 | 14 / 21 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 29 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.