Affirm Holdings Inc (AFRM)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$69.66-7.84%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AFRM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 48.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 33.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 27 industry peers
AFRM — credit agreement
Dated 2026-06-25
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 18, 2026, Affirm Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”), a Nevada corporation, and Affirm, Inc. (the “Borrower”), a Delaware corporation and wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company, as borrower, entered into Amendment No. 4 to the Revolving Credit Agreement (the “Amended Credit Agreement”) with the lenders party thereto and Barclays Bank PLC, as administrative agent (the “Lenders”) and the other parties party thereto. Under the Amended Credit Agreeme…
Why it matters: Management said delinquencies rose as expected and consumers could still repay. A faster rise could challenge that view.
Worry ifThe next report says delinquencies rose faster than expected, or reports a higher rate than in the prior quarter.
Less concerning ifManagement says delinquencies stayed in line with expectations. It sees no drop in consumers' ability to repay.
Why it matters: The company priced its third straight revolving ABS deal below a 5% blended yield. Lower funding costs helped raise its return per dollar of sales.
Supportive ifAffirm reports another revolving ABS deal with a blended yield below 5%. Average annual funding cost stays at or below 5.8%.
Worry ifAffirm reports an ABS blended yield at or above 5%, or average annual funding cost above 5.8%.
Why it matters: Affirm said consumers remained able to repay. The November jobs and retail reports are dated checks on consumer conditions before the next quarter ends.
Watch forThe November 6 jobs report shows payroll growth, and the November 17 retail report shows sales growth versus the prior month.
Also watch forThe November 6 jobs report shows fewer payrolls. Or the November 17 retail report shows sales below the prior month.
Why it matters: The letter showed 35% GMV growth and $1.039B in revenue. The next results can show if growth continues and the $4.2B goal was met.
Supportive ifThe Q2 FY2027 report shows GMV growth of at least 30% year over year, and the FY2026 report confirms revenue of at least $4.2B.
Worry ifThe Q2 FY2027 report shows GMV growth below 30% year over year, or FY2026 revenue below $4.2B.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$205 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $623 loss on $10,000 · 6.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,879 loss on $10,000 · 48.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Operating margin reached 8.5% in the supplied letter. The next report can show if profit gains continue as the company grows.
Supportive ifThe next report shows an operating margin of at least 8.5% and GMV growth above 30% from a year ago.
Worry ifThe next report shows an operating loss or GMV growth below 30% year over year.