Affirm Holdings Inc (AFRM)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$72.35-2.62%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AFRM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 48.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 29.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 18.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AFRM — credit agreement
Dated 2026-06-25
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 18, 2026, Affirm Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”), a Nevada corporation, and Affirm, Inc. (the “Borrower”), a Delaware corporation and wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company, as borrower, entered into Amendment No. 4 to the Revolving Credit Agreement (the “Amended Credit Agreement”) with the lenders party thereto and Barclays Bank PLC, as administrative agent (the “Lenders”) and the other parties party thereto. Under the Amended Credit Agreeme…
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company is on track to meet its growth targets. A miss could hurt stock price.
Watch forQ3 2026 earnings meet or are better than what analysts expect.
Also watch forQ3 2026 earnings fall short of what analysts expect.
Why it matters: This growth rate would confirm that Affirm is on track to meet its $4.2B revenue goal.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 revenue growth exceeds 15% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue growth falls below 15% year over year.
Why it matters: A big rise in delinquencies could mean consumers are struggling financially. This may hurt Affirm's credit quality and growth.
Worry ifDelinquency rates rise above 10% of total loans.
Less concerning ifDelinquency rates are steady or going down.
Why it matters: Hitting this target confirms strong demand and effective growth strategies. It reflects the company's market position.
Supportive ifTotal revenue for FY 2026 is reported at $4.2B or more.
Worry ifTotal revenue for FY 2026 is reported below $4.2B.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$264 on $10,000 · ±2.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $593 loss on $10,000 · 5.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,386 loss on $10,000 · 53.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Consumer health affects demand for Affirm's services. Strong consumer health supports growth, while weakness could hinder it.
Watch forDelinquencies remain stable or decrease in Q4 2026.
Also watch forDelinquencies rose a lot in Q4 2026. This shows stress for consumers.
Why it matters: Growth beyond this number would show that the Affirm Card and partnerships are doing well.
Supportive ifActive cardholders were above 4.4 million.
Worry ifActive cardholders were below 4.4 million.
Why it matters: Meeting this target would confirm Affirm is on track to reach its $4.2B annual revenue goal.
Supportive ifQ4 2026 revenue reported at or above $1.165 billion.
Worry ifQ4 2026 revenue reported below $1.165 billion.
Why it matters: A margin above this level would show that Affirm can make more money as planned.
Supportive ifOperating margin was above 12.6% for Q4 2026.
Worry ifOperating margin was below 12.6% for Q4 2026.
Why it matters: An increase would show Affirm's ability to generate more cash, supporting its growth plans.
Supportive ifCash from operations reported above $374.6 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash from operations reported below $374.6 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Stable delinquencies would show that consumers are paying back loans well during tough times.
Supportive ifDelinquency rates were stable or lower than in previous quarters.
Worry ifDelinquency rates were higher than in previous quarters.