Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp. (AGM)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$197.97-3.70%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
23.14 → 23.07 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AGM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage rising credit risk to avoid net income decline | Federal Agricultural Mortgage keeps raising net income and operating income. | Improving | net income declines due to rising credit losses beyond current levels | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
AGM is a financial company with a value-oriented, execution-sensitive thesis, rather than a steady compounder. Its thesis state is watch: momentum improved, but confidence fell to medium and recent financial performance remains below its industry cohort.
The evidence describes AGM as cheap versus peers, with an expectations gap that suggests the market is not assuming a strong outlook. The priced-in fragility signal is low, so weak execution appears only partly reflected rather than fully priced in.
In the near term, the latest quarter showed 22% growth in business volume and net interest income, and 24% growth in core earnings per diluted share. Management is on track on growth and earnings priorities, while cost progress is less clear; earnings quality is fragile, and a guidance cut is a stated risk.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on sustained volume and earnings growth without a guidance cut. Lower rates could weigh on the financial sector backdrop, while continued strong results and guidance from sector bellwethers such as V, MA, and AXP could support sector momentum.
For the 1-to-3-year view, AGM combines peer-relative cheapness with improving recent results, but confidence is limited by fragile earnings quality, volatile management, and performance below its industry cohort. The thesis hinges on continued execution and the rate and sector backdrop. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Dividends are steady and growing, with $1.6 per share in 2026-Q1. |
| Intact |
| dividend per share falls below $1.6 annually |
Dividend per share: $1.60 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: dividend per share >= $1.6 annually. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Jul 30, 20261.6 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Net income growth to at least $59.1M in 2026-Q1 | Federal Agricultural Mortgage keeps raising net income and operating income. | Intact | net income falls below $59.1M in any quarter after 2026-Q1 | Net income: $66.951M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=59.1 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Jul 30, 202666,951,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income to at least $71.4M in 2026-Q1 | Federal Agricultural Mortgage keeps raising net income and operating income. | Intact | operating income falls below $71.4M in any quarter after 2026-Q1 | Operating income: $74.899M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=71.4 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Jul 30, 202674,899,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$21.35 → $23.07 · observed estimates
$0.52B → $0.54B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $21.35 | $518,606,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $21.35 | $518,606,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $21.35 | $518,606,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $21.35 | $518,606,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $21.35 | $518,606,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $21.35 | $518,606,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $21.35 | $518,606,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $21.35 | $518,606,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $21.35 | $518,606,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $22.37 | $542,317,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $22.37 | $542,317,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $22.37 | $542,317,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $22.37 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $22.37 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $22.37 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $22.37 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $22.37 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $22.37 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $22.37 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $22.37 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $23.14 | $542,317,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $23.14 | $543,239,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $23.14 | $543,239,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $23.14 | $543,239,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $23.07 | $543,239,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $23.07 | $543,239,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $23.07 | $543,239,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $23.07 | $543,239,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $23.07 | $543,239,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $23.07 | $543,239,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $23.07 | $543,239,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $23.07 | $543,239,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $23.07 | $543,239,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $23.07 | $543,239,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $23.07 | $543,239,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $23.07 | $543,239,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $23.07 | $543,239,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $23.07 | $543,239,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $23.07 | $543,239,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $23.07 | $543,239,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $23.07 | $543,239,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $23.07 | $543,239,500 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.