Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp. (AGM)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$197.97-3.70%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AGM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 2.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -62.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 65.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 22 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AGM — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 5, 2026, the Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (“ Farmer Mac ”) issued a press release to announce (1) its financial results for the quarterly period ended September 30, 2026 and (2) a conference call to discuss those results. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference into this report. All references to www.farmermac.com in Exhibit 99.1 are inactive textual references only, and th…
Why it matters: Management said the ratio stayed below its 30% goal in Q2. Reaching that mark would miss the stated goal.
Worry ifThe Q3 report shows an expense efficiency ratio of 30% or higher.
Less concerning ifThe Q3 report shows an expense efficiency ratio below 30%.
Why it matters: Q2 core earnings grew 24%. A slower gain would mark a loss of pace in a key measure of earnings.
Worry ifQ3 core earnings growth is below 24% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 core earnings grow 24% or more year over year.
Why it matters: Q2 volume grew 22% year over year. A slower Q3 would test the company's main growth goal.
Worry ifIn the Q3 results on November 5, outstanding business volume grows less than 22% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 outstanding business volume grows 22% or more year over year.
Why it matters: Net interest income rose 22% in Q2. A slower gain would weaken evidence that volume growth is lifting income.
Worry ifQ3 net interest income grows less than 22% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 net interest income grows 22% or more year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$88 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $272 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,323 loss on $10,000 · 23.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.