Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp. (AGM)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$227.78+0.71%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AGM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 13.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| -57.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 71.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AGM — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-12
Other Events. On August 12, 2026, the Board of Directors (“Board”) of the Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (“Farmer Mac”) declared a quarterly dividend on each of Farmer Mac’s three classes of common stock – Class A Voting Coming Stock, Class B Voting Common Stock and Class C Non-Voting Common Stock (“Common Stock”). The quarterly dividend of $1.60 per share of Common Stock will be payable on September 30, 2026, to holders of record of Farmer Mac’s Common Stock as of September 15, 20…
Why it matters: The dividend payment shows the company wants to give value to shareholders.
Watch forThe company pays the dividend on Series I Preferred Stock as planned.
Also watch forA delay or cancel of the dividend raises worries about financial health.
Why it matters: More operating income shows good cost management and smart plans. This helps boost operating income.
Supportive ifOperating income for Q2 exceeds $82.1M, which is a 15% increase from Q1.
Worry ifIf Q2 operating income is below $71.4M, it shows weaker performance.
Why it matters: A Tier 1 capital ratio above 13% shows strong capital and good financial health.
Supportive ifTier 1 capital ratio remains above 13% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifTier 1 capital ratio falls below 12% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Net income is growing. This shows that management is focused on being more efficient.
Supportive ifNet income increases above $59.1M in Q2.
Worry ifNet income decreases or stagnates below $47.9M.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$92 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $288 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,047 loss on $10,000 · 30.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Over 20% growth in business volume shows strong demand and a good market position.
Supportive ifBusiness volume grows more than 20% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifBusiness volume growth falls below 15% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A smooth CEO change can affect company plans and stability. This matters for the future.
Watch forNew CEO Bradford T. Nordholm starts to put new plans into action.
Also watch forA CEO change can lead to problems or changes in strategy.
Why it matters: Slower core earnings growth may mean it is harder to keep making money.
Worry ifCore earnings growth in Q3 falls below 20% year over year.
Less concerning ifCore earnings growth in Q3 exceeds 20% year over year.
Why it matters: A higher dividend shows strong financial health and care for shareholders. This matches management's goal to keep dividends.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a quarterly dividend above $1.60 per share for Q3.
Worry ifIf the dividend stays at $1.60 or goes down, it may show financial trouble.
Why it matters: A slowdown in net interest income growth may show weaker demand or pricing issues.
Worry ifQ3 net interest income growth below 20% year over year.
Less concerning ifNet interest income growth remains above 20% year over year.
Why it matters: The CEO change may affect company plans and how investors feel.
Watch forThe new CEO shares a clear plan in a public statement after taking over.
Also watch forUnclear direction from the new CEO raises worries about future plans.
Why it matters: Core earnings growth shows strong financial health. It helps management's growth plan.
Supportive ifCore earnings for Q3 2026 exceed $58.8 million, showing continued growth.
Worry ifCore earnings below $58.8 million may show weakness.
Why it matters: A higher expense efficiency ratio means rising costs. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifExpense efficiency ratio is below 30%. This shows good cost management.
Less concerning ifExpense efficiency ratio over 30% may show cost problems.
Why it matters: Growth in Tier 1 capital boosts Farmer Mac's finances. It helps with lending.
Supportive ifTier 1 capital goes up after the $100 million preferred stock issue.
Worry ifTier 1 capital does not grow after issuance. This may show capital issues.