Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
AGNC Investment Corp (AGNC)
NASDAQReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-05
$8.82-0.56%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.50 → 1.44 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AGNC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend payout at $0.36 per share | AGNC maintains a steady dividend of $0.36 per share. | Intact | dividend per share falls below $0.36 in any quarter | Dividend per share: $0.36 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.36 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 29, 20260.36 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
AGNC is a rate-sensitive mortgage real estate investment trust, so results can shift with interest rates and mortgage markets. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: recent performance is weak, earnings quality is fragile, and the supplied evidence shows a large decline in company quality and management scores.
The valuation evidence calls AGNC cheap versus peers, but also tags it as stretched, with medium model confidence and an expectations gap of 0.22. That points to mixed expectations rather than a clear sign that weak execution is fully reflected.
Near term, results face meaningful execution risk: the latest quarter reported a $1,357 million net loss, a negative 12.7% economic return, and a $1.45 decline in tangible book value per share. Management maintained the $0.36 quarterly dividend and issued shares through its ATM program, but the evidence rates performance and earnings quality as weak and fragile.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis partly hinges on whether the Federal Reserve begins cutting rates from 3.88%, which the evidence identifies as a possible tailwind for rate-sensitive real estate names. It also hinges on the next guidance update and whether sector peers show weaker results or guidance, which could remove sector support.
For the 1-to-3-year view, AGNC remains a watch-state, rate-sensitive business with a peer valuation discount but weak recent results and uncertain execution. The thesis depends on improved operating outcomes and whether rate and sector conditions become more supportive. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Cash from operations improved to $387 million in 2026-Q1. |
| Broken |
| cash from operations falls below $300 million in any quarter |
Cash from operations: $404M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $387 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 29, 2026404,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Implement stock issuance program to support capital needs | The company’s stock issuance program supports capital needs. | Improving | stock issuance program ceases or dilutes shareholder value materially | Program active (May 2026) vs target active by 2026-Q3 ATM program active since May 2026. Q3 2026 earnings miss with $(1.28) loss per share. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.50 → $1.44 · observed estimates
$2.04B → $4.94B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.50 | $2,041,929,170 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.50 | $1,933,287,430 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.50 | $1,933,287,430 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.50 | $1,933,287,430 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.50 | $1,933,287,430 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.50 | $1,933,287,430 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.50 | $1,933,287,430 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.50 | $1,933,287,430 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.50 | $1,933,287,430 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.50 | $1,933,287,430 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.50 | $1,933,287,430 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.50 | $1,933,287,430 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.50 | $1,933,287,430 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.50 | $1,933,287,430 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.50 | $1,933,287,430 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.50 | $1,933,287,430 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.50 | $1,933,287,430 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.50 | $1,933,287,430 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.50 | $1,933,287,430 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.50 | $1,933,287,430 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.50 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.49 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.49 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.49 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.49 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.49 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.49 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.49 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.49 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.46 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.46 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.45 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.45 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.45 | $4,410,300,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.44 | $4,928,880,000 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.44 | $4,928,880,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.44 | $4,928,880,000 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.45 | $4,928,880,000 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.45 | $4,928,880,000 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.45 | $4,928,880,000 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.45 | $4,928,880,000 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.44 | $4,928,880,000 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.44 | $4,928,880,000 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.44 | $4,935,600,000 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.44 | $4,935,600,000 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.44 | $4,935,600,000 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.44 | $4,935,600,000 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.44 | $4,935,600,000 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.44 | $4,935,600,000 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-11-05 | $1.44 | $4,935,600,000 | 9 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 5 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.