AGNC Investment Corp (AGNC)
NASDAQReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-05
$8.82-0.56%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AGNC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -16.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 14.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 31.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 25 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AGNC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-19
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On October 19, 2026, AGNC Investment Corp. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. The text of the aforementioned press release is included as exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K. The press release included the following financial information for the quarter: • Total comprehensive loss for the third quarter of 2026 of $(1.28) per share of common stock, comprised of $(1.17) net loss per common sha…
Why it matters: Tangible book value fell 16.9% in Q3 to $7.13 per share. A rebound would show that the Q3 loss has eased.
Watch forQ4 tangible book value per share rises above $7.13.
Also watch forQ4 tangible book value per share falls below $7.13.
Why it matters: Income fell from $0.40 per share in Q2 to $0.37 in Q3. The next result shows whether that decline continues.
Watch forQ4 net spread and dollar roll income is at least $0.37 per share.
Also watch forQ4 net spread and dollar roll income is below $0.37 per share.
Why it matters: AGNC said wide mortgage spreads could support MBS returns once Treasury swings ease. Wider spreads would put that view under pressure.
Watch forAGNC reports that Agency MBS spreads to benchmark rates narrowed from Q3 levels. Treasury market swings also eased.
Also watch forAGNC reports that Agency MBS spreads widened further from Q3 levels, or Treasury market swings stayed high.
Why it matters: AGNC raised $992 million through its ATM program in Q3 at a premium to tangible book value. The next issue can show if that funding source remains open.
Watch forAGNC reports new ATM share sales at a price above tangible book value per share.
Also watch forAGNC reports ATM share sales at or below tangible book value per share, or no new ATM proceeds.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$102 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $257 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,671 loss on $10,000 · 26.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: AGNC kept the dividend at $0.36 in each of the first three 2026 quarters, despite a Q3 net loss. A cut would mark a change.
Worry ifAGNC declares a quarterly dividend below $0.36 per share.
Less concerning ifAGNC declares a quarterly dividend of at least $0.36 per share.