AGNC Investment Corp (AGNC)
NASDAQReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
$10.65-0.09%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AGNC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -1.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 11.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers
AGNC — debt issuance
Dated 2026-05-29
Other Events. On May 28, 2026, AGNC Investment Corp. (the “Company”) implemented a new “at the market” common stock issuance program by entering into separate sales agreements (each, a “Sales Agreement” and collectively, the “Sales Agreements”) with each of Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, Academy Securities, Inc., Barclays Capital Inc., BTIG, LLC, Citadel Securities Institutional LLC, Citizens JMP Securities, LLC, J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc., Moelis & Company LLC, Morga…
Why it matters: AGNC is keeping the $0.36 dividend. This shows they care about shareholders, despite losses.
Supportive ifDividend remains at $0.36 per share for the next quarter.
Worry ifDividend is cut below $0.36 per share.
Why it matters: FOMC decisions can affect mortgage rates and AGNC's funding costs. Rate hikes could pressure margins.
Worry ifFOMC maintains or lowers interest rates.
Less concerning ifFOMC raises interest rates.
Why it matters: Information about the stock issuance program can change how investors feel. It also impacts the capital structure.
Watch forAGNC says it has finished a stock issuance. This increases its capital.
Also watch forAGNC faces delays or issues with the stock issuance program.
Why it matters: The success of the stock issuance program can impact AGNC's capital structure and funding.
Watch forThe stock issuance program was successful. It raised a lot of capital.
Also watch forNot raising enough capital or a bad market reaction to the issuance.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$82 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $193 loss on $10,000 · 1.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,868 loss on $10,000 · 18.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Changes in CPR change the value of mortgage-backed securities. This affects income and risk.
Watch forProjected CPR for Q3 is lower than 8.6%.
Also watch forProjected CPR for Q3 is higher than 10.3%.
Why it matters: Cash flow growth helps AGNC keep its dividend. It shows the company is efficient.
Supportive ifOperational cash flow increases beyond $387M in Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperational cash flow drops below $387M in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial stability. It also shows commitment to shareholders. A cut could raise worries.
Supportive ifAGNC declares a dividend of $0.36 per share for Q3 2026.
Worry ifAGNC declares a dividend lower than $0.36 per share for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This income measure shows how much money the company makes. A drop could mean problems.
Worry ifNet spread and dollar roll income per share for Q3 2026 exceeds $0.40.
Less concerning ifNet spread and dollar roll income per share for Q3 2026 falls below $0.40.
Why it matters: Changes in tangible net book value reflect the company's asset value. A decline could signal weakness.
Worry ifTangible net book value per share increases above $8.58 in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifTangible net book value per share decreases below $8.38 in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in the CPR can impact cash flow and portfolio performance. A rise could indicate risk.
Watch forThe average projected CPR for Q3 2026 is below 8.6%.
Also watch forThe average projected CPR for Q3 2026 is above 10.3%.