Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$71.76-1.03%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.84 → 6.84 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AGO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend per share growth to at least $0.38 in 2026-Q1 | Dividends per share rose to $0.38 in 2026-Q1, showing steady payout growth. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.38 in 2026-Q1 | Dividend per share: $0.38 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.38 USD per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 7, 20260.38 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a financial-sector value case, not a clear durable-growth story. The multi-year view is on watch: management is stable and the signal has improved to mildly favorable, but earnings quality is fragile and recent results have lagged the industry cohort.
AGO is cheap versus peers, while the valuation model shows a 32% premium versus peers and an expectations gap of negative 0.28. The evidence labels pricing as justified, with low fragility, so the market does not appear to be pricing in the full combination of weak execution, expensive valuation, and turbulence.
Near term, earnings and revenue delivery remain uneven: adjusted operating income and earnings per share fell in the second quarter, and first-half revenue reached $456 million against full-year guidance of $1.1 billion. Dividend growth has continued, but an August earnings miss and erratic surprises keep execution risk in view.
The near-term downside case strengthens if AGO cuts guidance or if the Federal Reserve begins reducing rates, which the evidence says would weigh on financial companies. The favorable case depends partly on sector momentum continuing, with bellwethers such as FNF, FAF, and ACT beating earnings and raising guidance.
Over the next one to three years, AGO’s thesis rests on turning mixed execution into steadier earnings and revenue delivery while sustaining dividend growth. Its low relative valuation offers context, but the evidence supports continued watchfulness rather than a settled thesis. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=9.08 USD per share. |
| Broken |
| EPS falls below $9.08 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $0.88 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=9.08 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 20260.88 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue of at least $1.1 billion in 2026 | A primary condition in Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=1100 million USD. | Intact | Revenue falls below $1.1 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $195M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=1100 million USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 2026195,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.16 → $6.84 · observed estimates
$0.85B → $0.84B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $7.16 | $849,615,590 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $7.16 | $849,615,590 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $7.16 | $849,615,590 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $7.16 | $849,615,590 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $7.16 | $849,615,590 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $7.16 | $849,615,590 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $7.16 | $849,615,590 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $7.16 | $849,615,590 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $7.16 | $849,615,590 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $7.16 | $849,615,590 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $7.16 | $849,615,590 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $7.16 | $849,615,590 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $7.16 | $849,615,590 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $7.16 | $849,615,590 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $6.88 | $849,615,589 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $7.16 | $849,615,590 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $7.16 | $849,615,590 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $7.16 | $849,615,590 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | $7.16 | $851,648,920 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $7.16 | $851,648,920 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $7.16 | $851,648,920 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $6.88 | $849,615,589 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $6.88 | $849,615,589 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $6.88 | $849,615,589 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $6.88 | $849,615,589 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $6.88 | $849,615,589 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $6.88 | $849,615,589 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $6.88 | $849,615,589 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $6.89 | $851,948,922 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $6.89 | $851,948,922 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $6.89 | $851,948,922 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $6.89 | $851,948,922 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $6.89 | $851,948,922 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $6.89 | $851,948,922 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $6.89 | $851,948,922 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $6.89 | $851,948,922 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $6.89 | $851,948,922 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $6.89 | $851,948,922 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $6.75 | $805,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $6.75 | $805,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.75 | $805,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.75 | $805,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $6.75 | $805,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $6.75 | $805,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $6.75 | $805,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $6.75 | $805,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $6.75 | $805,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.75 | $805,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $6.75 | $805,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.75 | $805,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $6.75 | $805,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $6.75 | $805,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.75 | $805,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $6.75 | $805,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.84 | $843,634,893 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.