Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$75.69-0.17%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AGO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -32.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -11.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 21.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AGO — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, Assured Guaranty Ltd. issued a press release reporting its second quarter 2026 results and the availability of its June 30, 2026 financial supplement. The press release and the financial supplement are attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, and are incorporated by reference herein.
Why it matters: How the sector performs affects Assured Guaranty's growth and profit.
Watch forSector revenue growth stays steady or improves from current levels.
Also watch forSector revenue growth drops below its median, indicating a slowdown.
Why it matters: Going over $85 million shows strong business output and helps revenue growth.
Supportive ifGWP in Q3 exceeds $85 million, showing strong demand for insurance products.
Worry ifGWP in Q3 below $70 million shows weak business performance.
Why it matters: Growth in gross written premiums (GWP) shows strong demand for the company's insurance products.
Supportive ifGWP was over $70 million in Q2 2026. This shows strong business momentum.
Worry ifGWP was under $70 million in Q2 2026. This indicates possible market challenges.
Why it matters: Growing dividends show good money management. It shows a promise to give value to shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend per share increases from $0.38 in Q2 2026.
Worry ifDividend per share remains at $0.38 or decreases.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$83 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $178 loss on $10,000 · 1.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,024 loss on $10,000 · 20.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Falling below $300 million shows trouble in hitting yearly revenue goals.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is reported below $300 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue exceeds $300 million.
Why it matters: Confirming this guidance shows confidence in reaching growth goals despite mixed results.
Watch forManagement confirms revenue guidance of $1.1 billion for 2026 in the next earnings call.
Also watch forManagement lowers revenue guidance to below $1.1 billion for 2026 in the next call.
Why it matters: A drop below this level shows big earnings pressure and may affect investor feelings.
Worry ifNet income per share reported above $0.80 in the next earnings release.
Less concerning ifNet income per share reported below $0.80 in the next earnings release.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company keeps growing EPS and operating income.
Supportive ifEarnings per share is over $2.50. This shows strong performance.
Worry ifEarnings per share falls below $2.00, suggesting weaker results.
Why it matters: The FOMC's choice can affect interest rates and market feelings.
Watch forFOMC raises interest rates. This leads to more demand for financial guarantees.
Also watch forFOMC lowers interest rates. This leads to less demand for financial guarantees.
Why it matters: Keeping dividend growth shows strong capital use and good financial health.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase from the current level of $0.40 per share.
Worry ifNo increase in dividends or a cut to the current dividend level.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company meets its $1.1 billion revenue goal for 2026.
Watch forIn Q2 2026, revenue was over $300 million. This shows strong progress toward the $1.1 billion goal.
Also watch forIn Q2 2026, revenue was under $300 million. This suggests challenges in hitting the annual revenue target.
Why it matters: This revenue figure is crucial for meeting the $1.1 billion annual guidance. It shows if growth is on track.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue was $261 million or more. This shows strong progress towards $1.1 billion.
Worry ifQ2 revenue is below $261 million. This suggests challenges in reaching the annual target.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, it shows ongoing money-making issues. Investors may react badly to more drops.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted operating income per share is below $1.00.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted operating income per share is above $1.00.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising the dividend shows good money management. It makes investors feel good.
Supportive ifDividend per share reported at or above $0.38.
Worry ifDividend per share drops below $0.38.
Why it matters: Missing this target shows big money challenges. This could hurt investor trust.
Worry ifTotal revenue reported below $1 billion for the full year 2026.
Less concerning ifTotal revenue exceeds $1 billion for the full year 2026.