Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-04-30 · fmp
C3.ai, Inc. (AI)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$11.38-4.85%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue meets or exceeds $210M-$240M guidance | A primary condition in C3.ai, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Revenue >= $210M in fiscal 2027. | Intact | Revenue falls below $210M in fiscal 2027 | Revenue: $52.375M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: Revenue >= $210M in fiscal 2027. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Sep 9, 202652,375,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-04-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Dec 2, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative turnaround rather than a durable compounder, with elevated risk and ongoing losses. The current multi-year view is watchful: momentum has improved, but recent financial performance remains well below the industry cohort.
The evidence labels valuation as justified, with low fragility, but the model has low confidence. AI trades at a 2.0-times premium versus peers, while the expectations gap is modest at 0.05, suggesting limited room for disappointment without establishing that the business is inexpensive.
Near term, revenue has stabilized around $51.6 million to $52.4 million after falling from $70.3 million in 2026-Q1, while management is focused on restarting growth. Losses narrowed in 2027-Q1, and the restructuring plan is substantially complete; management says it is designed to provide about $135 million in annualized non-GAAP cost savings, with positive free cash flow reported that quarter. Recent financial performance has been weak, and the evidence notes a history of misses, so sustained revenue growth and execution remain uncertain.
The thesis depends on whether sales restructuring and customer acquisition can turn revenue stabilization into sustained growth while cost savings continue to reduce losses. A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative; lower interest rates or steadier results and guidance from major technology peers could support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the long-term thesis rests on a real but still early improvement in costs and losses becoming durable growth, despite elevated risk and weak recent performance. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| C3.ai is cutting costs with a 26% workforce reduction and aims to improve cash flow. |
| Improving |
| Operating cash flow worsens beyond -$54M by Q4 2026 |
Cash from operations: $2.072M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: Operating cash flow improves to better than -$54M by Q4 2026. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Sep 9, 20262,072,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Leadership changes do not disrupt execution | Leadership changes may help stabilize execution. | Improving | Leadership changes cause material operational disruption | Qualitative: No material disruption Bookings +73%, revenue beat, routine board changes, CEO leave without operational disruption. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating losses decline toward break-even | A primary condition in C3.ai, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Operating loss improves to better than -$120M by Q4 2026. | Broken | Operating loss worsens beyond -$125M by Q4 2026 | Operating income: $-98.268M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: Operating loss improves to better than -$120M by Q4 2026. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Sep 9, 2026-98,268,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.45 → $-0.47 · observed estimates
$0.25B → $0.25B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.45 | $246,859,906 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.45 | $246,859,906 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.45 | $246,859,906 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.45 | $246,859,906 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.45 | $246,859,906 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.45 | $246,859,906 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.45 | $246,859,906 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.45 | $246,859,906 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.45 | $246,859,906 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.45 | $246,859,906 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.45 | $246,859,906 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.45 | $246,859,906 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.45 | $246,859,906 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.45 | $246,859,906 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.45 | $246,859,906 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.45 | $246,859,906 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.45 | $246,859,906 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.45 | $246,859,906 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.45 | $246,859,906 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.45 | $246,859,906 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.45 | $246,859,906 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.45 | $246,859,906 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.45 | $246,859,906 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.45 | $246,859,906 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.45 | $246,859,906 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.45 | $246,859,906 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.45 | $246,859,906 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.45 | $246,859,906 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.45 | $246,859,906 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.45 | $246,859,906 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.45 | $246,859,906 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.45 | $246,859,906 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.45 | $246,859,906 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.45 | $246,859,906 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.45 | $246,859,906 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.45 | $246,859,906 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.45 | $246,859,906 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.45 | $246,859,906 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.45 | $246,859,906 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.45 | $246,859,906 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.45 | $246,859,906 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.47 | $245,164,839 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.49 | $244,164,839 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.49 | $244,680,224 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.49 | $244,680,224 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.49 | $244,680,224 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.49 | $245,141,762 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.49 | $245,141,762 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.48 | $245,141,762 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.48 | $245,064,839 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.48 | $245,064,839 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.48 | $244,489,409 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.48 | $244,489,409 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.48 | $244,489,409 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.48 | $244,489,409 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.48 | $244,489,409 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.48 | $244,489,409 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.48 | $244,489,409 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.48 | $244,489,409 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.48 | $244,489,409 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.48 | $244,489,409 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.48 | $244,489,409 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.48 | $244,489,409 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.48 | $244,489,409 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.48 | $244,489,409 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.48 | $244,489,409 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.48 | $244,489,409 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.48 | $244,489,409 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.48 | $244,489,409 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.48 | $244,489,409 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.48 | $244,489,409 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.48 | $244,489,409 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.48 | $244,489,409 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.48 | $244,489,409 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.48 | $244,489,409 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.48 | $244,489,409 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.48 | $244,489,409 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.48 | $244,489,409 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.48 | $244,489,409 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.48 | $244,489,409 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.48 | $244,489,409 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.47 | $245,574,916 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.47 | $245,574,916 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.47 | $245,574,916 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.47 | $245,574,916 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.47 | $245,574,916 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.47 | $245,574,916 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.47 | $245,574,916 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.47 | $245,574,916 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.47 | $245,574,916 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.47 | $245,574,916 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.47 | $245,574,916 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.47 | $245,574,916 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.47 | $245,574,916 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.47 | $245,574,916 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.47 | $245,574,916 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.47 | $245,574,916 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.47 | $245,574,916 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.47 | $245,574,916 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.47 | $245,574,916 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.47 | $245,574,916 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.47 | $245,574,916 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.47 | $245,574,916 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.47 | $245,574,916 | 7 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 6 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.