Align Technology (ALGN)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$158.64-0.76%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ALGN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -9.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 87 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ALGN — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-29
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 29, 2026, Align Technology, Inc. issued a press release and will hold a conference call regarding its financial results for its second quarter ended June 30, 2026. The full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. This information is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorpo…
Why it matters: Changes in patient traffic could affect Align's sales and growth outlook.
Watch forQ2 results show no major change in patient traffic.
Also watch forA drop in patient traffic was reported due to the ongoing conflict.
Why it matters: This guidance will show if Align is on track for its 2026 growth target of 3% to 4%.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue guidance is confirmed between $1,040M to $1,060M, indicating growth.
Worry ifQ2 revenue guidance falls below the 3% year-over-year growth mark.
Why it matters: This would signal a potential slowdown in Align's growth strategy for the year. Investors are focused on the company's ability to meet its revenue targets.
Worry ifQ2 2026 worldwide revenues were below $1,040 million.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 worldwide revenues were above $1,060 million.
Why it matters: Completing the stock repurchase shows trust in Align's financial health and plans.
Supportive ifAlign will finish the $200 million stock repurchase by October 2026 as planned.
Worry ifThe stock repurchase program is delayed or canceled.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$192 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $372 loss on $10,000 · 3.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,154 loss on $10,000 · 21.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This margin shows good cost control and helps with long-term profit.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 GAAP operating margin meets or exceeds 16.4%.
Worry ifQ2 2026 GAAP operating margin falls below 16.4%.
Why it matters: A lower margin change shows problems with cost control and making money.
Worry ifGAAP operating margin change below 100 basis points compared to last year.
Less concerning ifGAAP operating margin change of 100 basis points or more compared to last year.
Why it matters: Align met its operating margin goal. This shows it can control costs well.
Supportive ifThe 2026 GAAP operating margin was just under 18%.
Worry ifThe 2026 GAAP operating margin was much lower than 18%.
Why it matters: This growth rate is a key indicator of Align's performance. It tests management's guidance for the year.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue growth is less than 3% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 revenue growth reported at 3% or higher year-over-year.
Why it matters: Updates may show better efficiency and plans for future growth.
Supportive ifKey findings or plans from the strategic review process are announced.
Worry ifNo updates or lack of progress reported on the strategic review process.
Why it matters: New directors can improve governance and strategy. This may boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifThree new independent directors with the right skills have been announced.
Worry ifNo announcement of new board directors by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This growth rate is key to meeting the 3% to 4% revenue growth target for 2026.
Worry ifQ3 Clear Aligner revenue grew less than 3% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifQ3 Clear Aligner revenue growth at or above 3%.
Why it matters: Positive growth shows the capital equipment market is recovering. This helps overall revenue growth.
Supportive ifQ3 Systems and Services revenue grew more than 0% compared to last year.
Worry ifQ3 Systems and Services revenue grew less than 0% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Falling below this margin would make it hard to improve operating margins by 100 basis points each year.
Worry ifQ3 GAAP operating margin below 15.1%.
Less concerning ifQ3 GAAP operating margin at or above 15.1%.
Why it matters: This shows good capital use and a commitment to giving value back to shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of stock repurchase between $200M and $500M.
Worry ifNo announcement of stock repurchase or a lower amount than $200M.