Align Technology (ALGN)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$159.37-3.35%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ALGN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -6.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 28 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ALGN — CEO transition
Dated 2026-10-28
CEO — Jennifer L. Davis: The filing discloses an orderly CEO succession where the current CEO retires and is replaced by a named external hire, which is a significant but planned transition rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: This business fell 7.6% in Q3. Another decline would extend the weak trend in scanners and services.
Worry ifQ4 Systems and Services revenue is below $170 million, below the low end of guidance.
Less concerning ifQ4 Systems and Services revenue reaches at least $170 million, within or above guidance.
Why it matters: The new product uses iTero scans and direct 3D printing. Doctor uptake would show demand beyond aligners.
Supportive ifAlign reports that the U.S. pilot has launched and names doctors or clinics using the Sports Guard.
Worry ifAlign delays the pilot or reports that it has not begun after the stated launch week.
Why it matters: Management sees Q4 volume up by low single digits. Faster growth would build on Q3's 6.6% gain.
Supportive ifQ4 clear aligner volume grows at least 3% year over year.
Worry ifQ4 clear aligner volume is flat or falls year over year.
Why it matters: A new CEO is due to take charge as Align pursues growth and margin gains. Her first plans can show whether the strategy stays on course.
Watch forDavis becomes CEO on December 31, and her first public plan keeps the stated focus on growth and margin gains.
Also watch forThe handoff is delayed, or Davis publicly changes the stated growth and margin goals.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$144 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $372 loss on $10,000 · 3.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,918 loss on $10,000 · 29.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.