Align Technology (ALGN)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-07-07
$185.22-1.68%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $185.22. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $185 ALGN trades at 17× p/e, below its 30× p/e peer median, but our blended $172 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks. Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $202 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $91.82 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $106.32 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $119.59 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $156.11 | 14.0 | 10.12 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price the business can't be justified by any reasonable horizon of the forecast growth; the price already runs past what the model can underwrite. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $5.91/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $193.79 |
| 27.6 |
| 7.02 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $335.26 | 29.6 | 11.34 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $152.26 | 2.7 | 57.19 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $253.73 | 22.4 | 11.34 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $76.35 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $193.88 | 17.1 | 11.34 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $339.05 | 29.6 | 11.47 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $207.42 | 27.6 | 7.51 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $392.05 | 29.6 | 13.27 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $174.09 | 2.7 | 65.39 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $296.71 | 22.4 | 13.27 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $226.73 | 17.1 | 13.27 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $217.03 | 27.6 | 7.86 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $428.13 | 29.6 | 14.49 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $190.11 | 2.7 | 71.41 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $324.02 | 22.4 | 14.49 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $247.59 | 17.1 | 14.49 | Analyst | high |