Allstate (ALL)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-07-07
$251.49+1.25%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $251.49. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $251 ALL trades at 2.1× p/b, in line with its 1.8× p/b peer median — but our blended $317 fair value sits well above the price. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits above the analyst range. Analysts target $213–$300. Note: our $317 fair value sits above the entire analyst range ($213–$300). Not investment advice.
$213.00 – $300.00 (median $264.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-07-07
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2025-Q4, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $264.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $2281.39 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $2400.33 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $84.16 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $344.65 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer P/B | 12M | $212.64 | 1.8 | 120.29 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $325.78 | 7.4 | 43.91 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $673.45 | 15.3 | 43.89 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $398.15 | 1.5 | 259.61 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $260.75 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $260.84 | 5.9 | 43.89 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $740.33 | 15.3 | 48.25 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/B | 3Y | $323.40 | 1.8 | 182.94 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $495.47 | 7.4 | 66.78 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $238.63 | 15.3 | 15.55 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $92.42 | 5.9 | 15.55 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/B | 5Y | $427.70 | 1.8 | 241.94 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | low |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $655.26 | 7.4 | 88.31 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | low |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $119.49 | 15.3 | 7.79 | Analyst | low |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $46.28 | 5.9 | 7.79 | Analyst | low |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.