Allstate (ALL)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$259.57-1.35%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ALL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -23.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -8.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ALL — director transition
Dated 2025-11-20
Lead Director — Gregg M. Sherrill: Gregg M. Sherrill will retire from the board of directors and be succeeded by Richard T. Hume as Lead Director.
Why it matters: Higher earnings would show strong performance. It would also show good cost management.
Supportive ifQ2 net income was over $2.4 billion. This shows strong underwriting results.
Worry ifQ2 net income was below $1.5 billion. This suggests worsening financial conditions.
Why it matters: Gaining market share shows good strategies. This can help future earnings.
Supportive ifMarket share in auto and homeowners insurance increases by more than 1% in Q3.
Worry ifMarket share in auto and homeowners insurance declines or remains flat in Q3.
Why it matters: Weak earnings growth can mean challenges. It may be hard to keep profits.
Worry ifQ2 earnings growth was below 3% year-over-year. This shows potential problems.
Less concerning ifQ2 earnings growth was above 5% year-over-year. This shows strong performance.
Why it matters: Earnings below this level may show lower profits and less investor trust.
Worry ifQ2 earnings per share reported below $10.
Less concerning ifQ2 earnings per share reported above $11.
Why it matters: Earnings per share growth shows strong performance. This may boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ3 earnings per share were above $9.00. This indicates strong profitability.
Worry ifQ3 earnings per share were less than $9.00. This shows there may be problems.
Why it matters: More policies mean strong market demand. This shows effective sales strategies.
Supportive ifPolicies in force increase by more than 2.5% quarter over quarter.
Worry ifPolicies in force growth slows to less than 2.5% quarter over quarter.
Why it matters: More share repurchases show strong capital management. They also show confidence in the company.
Supportive ifShare repurchases were over $1 billion in Q3. This shows strong cash flow and capital use.
Worry ifShare buybacks are below $800 million. This raises concerns about managing capital.
Why it matters: Gaining market share shows strong competition and keeps customers.
Supportive ifMarket share gains in auto insurance reported above 3%.
Worry ifMarket share gains in auto insurance reported below 1%.
Why it matters: Higher catastrophe losses can hurt profits. They can also affect investor trust.
Worry ifIn Q3, catastrophe losses were over $1.5 billion.
Less concerning ifIn Q3, catastrophe losses were under $1.0 billion.
Why it matters: Growth in Protection Plans is key for Allstate's revenue.
Supportive ifProtection Plans revenue grows above $650 million in Q3.
Worry ifProtection Plans revenue falls below $600 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Slower growth in policies in force may signal challenges in market share expansion.
Worry ifPolicies in force growth rate drops below 2.5% in Q3.
Less concerning ifPolicies in force growth rate remains above 3.0% in Q3.
Why it matters: More share repurchases can show good capital management. This can increase shareholder value.
Supportive ifShare repurchases were over $1.5 billion by the end of 2026.
Worry ifShare repurchases were under $1.0 billion by the end of 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$102 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $244 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,148 loss on $10,000 · 11.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.