Allstate (ALL)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-05
$266.72-0.87%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ALL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -20.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -10.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 30 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ALL — director transition
Dated 2025-11-20
Lead Director — Gregg M. Sherrill: Gregg M. Sherrill will retire from the board of directors and be succeeded by Richard T. Hume as Lead Director.
Why it matters: Auto policies grew 2.8% in Q2. More growth would show that new products and wider sales channels keep adding customers.
Supportive ifQ3 auto policies in force rise more than 2.8% year over year, after 2.8% growth in Q2.
Worry ifQ3 auto policy growth falls below 2.8% year over year or turns negative.
Why it matters: This ratio shows claim and cost results before some past claim changes. A rise could weaken the auto profit trend.
Worry ifQ3 auto underlying combined ratio rises above 89.5. This is the Q1 2026 level.
Less concerning ifQ3 auto underlying combined ratio stays at or below 89.5.
Why it matters: Plans are Allstate's largest Protection Services business. Growth above the Q2 pace would support its expansion priority.
Supportive ifQ3 Protection Plans revenue grows more than 9.2% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 Protection Plans revenue growth is 9.2% or lower year over year.
Why it matters: Protection Plans revenue grew 9.2% in Q2, but profit fell as appliance margins weakened. A profit rebound would show growth is paying off.
Watch forProtection Plans adjusted net income tops $42 million in the next reported quarter.
Also watch forProtection Plans adjusted net income stays at or below $42 million as revenue grows.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$108 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $244 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,936 loss on $10,000 · 19.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The report will test whether strong Q2 growth and underwriting results continued. Pay close attention to policy growth and claim costs.
Watch forThe November 4 report shows auto and home policy growth above 2.8% and 2.9%. Their underlying ratios stay at or below Q2 levels.
Also watch forThe report shows slower policy growth or ratios above Q2 levels: 87.6 for auto and 61.5 for homes.
Why it matters: Home policies and premiums grew in Q2, but the underlying ratio rose to 61.5. Higher claim costs could eat into that growth.
Worry ifQ3 homeowners underlying combined ratio rises above 61.5. This is the Q2 level.
Less concerning ifQ3 homeowners underlying combined ratio falls to 61.5 or less.