Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Allstate (ALL)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$266.72-0.87%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
27.78 → 28.05 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ALL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Premium reductions for at least 7.8 million customers in 2026-Q1 | A supporting condition in Allstate's published investment case. The stated target is >=7.8 million customers with reduced premiums. | Improving | premium reductions fall below 6 million customers in 2026-Q1 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an insurance business with a measured growth thesis, not a clear turnaround or high-growth story. Management execution has improved, but the overall thesis state is still uncertain because there is not enough recent financial-performance history to judge it.
The valuation is described as cheap, but ALL trades at a premium to peers. Expectations are somewhat below the model’s view, while pricing is tagged as justified and fragility is low, so the evidence does not point to a large mismatch between expectations and the business setup.
Over the multi-year view, policy growth and Protection Plans expansion support revenue growth, while management has also returned cash through dividends and share repurchases. Near term, miss risk is low, but earnings surprises have been trending down and the company has a history of a deep miss; recent earnings beats and improved management assessment are positive signs.
The thesis depends on ALL sustaining growth in auto and homeowners policies while improving underwriting results, and on continued expansion of Protection Plans and international business. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; sector momentum also depends in part on peer insurers continuing to report strong results and guide higher, while Fed rate cuts could weigh on the Financials sector.
For the next 1 to 3 years, ALL has credible growth priorities and recent execution support, but the premium to peers and uneven earnings signals leave the long-term thesis uncertain. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Allstate's published investment case. The stated target is >= $30.23 non-GAAP EPS. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $28 in FY 2026 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Policies in force reach at least 212 million by 2026-Q1 | Allstate grows policies in force to 212 million by 2026-Q1. | Broken | policies in force fall below 210 million by 2026-Q1 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Protection Plans revenue grows at least 5% in 2026-Q1 | Protection Plans revenue rose 13.5% in 2026-Q1, showing strong growth. | Improving | Protection Plans revenue growth falls below 5% in 2026-Q1 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Protection Plans’ international revenues are growing rapidly.” “Protection Plans continued to expand with international revenues up 30% above the prior year.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$26.51 → $28.05 · observed estimates
$73.49B → $62.11B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $26.51 | $73,490,445,060 | 22 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $26.51 | $73,490,445,060 | 22 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $26.51 | $73,490,445,060 | 22 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $26.36 | $63,876,249,886 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $26.51 | $73,490,445,060 | 22 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $26.51 | $73,490,445,060 | 22 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $26.51 | $73,490,445,060 | 22 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $26.51 | $73,490,445,060 | 22 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $26.51 | $73,490,445,060 | 22 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $26.51 | $73,236,751,950 | 22 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $26.51 | $73,236,751,950 | 22 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $26.51 | $73,236,751,950 | 22 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $26.51 | $73,236,751,950 | 22 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $26.51 | $73,236,751,950 | 22 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $26.48 | $63,876,249,884 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $26.48 | $63,876,249,884 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $26.98 | $71,053,709,660 | 22 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $26.98 | $71,053,709,660 | 22 / 7 |
| 2026-08-11 | $27.09 | $72,680,895,960 | 22 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $27.44 | $72,640,641,340 | 22 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $27.44 | $72,640,641,340 | 22 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $26.48 | $63,876,249,884 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $26.48 | $63,876,249,884 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $26.48 | $63,876,249,884 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $26.48 | $63,876,249,884 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $26.48 | $63,876,249,884 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $26.48 | $63,876,249,884 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $27.36 | $62,202,778,123 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $27.36 | $62,202,778,123 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $27.36 | $62,202,778,123 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $27.36 | $62,202,778,123 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $27.36 | $62,202,778,123 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $27.36 | $62,202,778,123 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $27.36 | $62,202,778,123 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $27.36 | $62,202,778,123 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $27.36 | $62,202,778,123 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $27.51 | $62,202,778,123 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $27.51 | $62,202,778,123 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $27.51 | $62,202,778,123 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $27.51 | $62,202,778,123 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $27.51 | $62,202,778,123 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $27.51 | $62,202,778,123 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $27.51 | $62,202,778,123 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $27.51 | $62,202,778,123 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $27.51 | $62,202,778,123 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $27.51 | $62,202,778,123 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $27.51 | $62,202,778,123 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $27.51 | $62,202,778,123 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $27.51 | $62,202,778,123 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $27.51 | $62,202,778,123 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $27.51 | $62,202,778,123 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $27.51 | $62,202,778,123 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $27.51 | $62,202,778,123 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $27.51 | $62,202,778,123 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $27.51 | $62,202,778,123 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $27.51 | $62,202,778,123 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $27.51 | $62,202,778,123 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $27.51 | $62,202,778,123 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $27.52 | $62,202,778,123 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $27.52 | $62,202,778,123 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $27.54 | $62,202,778,123 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $27.64 | $62,202,778,123 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $27.64 | $62,202,778,123 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $27.64 | $62,202,778,123 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $27.64 | $62,202,778,123 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $27.64 | $62,202,778,123 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $27.64 | $62,202,778,123 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $27.64 | $62,202,778,123 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $27.64 | $62,202,778,123 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $27.64 | $62,202,778,123 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $27.78 | $62,159,691,665 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $27.78 | $62,159,691,665 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $27.78 | $62,159,691,665 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $27.78 | $62,159,691,665 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $27.93 | $62,157,942,407 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $27.96 | $62,157,942,409 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $28.00 | $62,106,386,854 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $28.01 | $62,106,386,854 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $28.01 | $62,106,386,854 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $28.01 | $62,106,386,854 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $28.01 | $62,106,386,854 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $28.02 | $62,106,386,854 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $28.05 | $62,106,386,854 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $28.05 | $62,106,386,854 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $28.05 | $62,106,386,851 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $28.05 | $62,106,386,851 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $28.05 | $62,106,386,851 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $28.05 | $62,106,386,851 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $28.05 | $62,106,386,851 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $28.05 | $62,106,386,851 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $28.05 | $62,106,386,851 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $28.05 | $62,106,386,851 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $28.05 | $62,106,386,851 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $28.05 | $62,106,386,851 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $28.05 | $62,106,386,851 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $28.05 | $62,106,386,851 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $28.05 | $62,106,386,851 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $28.05 | $62,106,386,851 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $28.05 | $62,106,386,851 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $28.05 | $62,106,386,851 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $28.05 | $62,106,386,851 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $28.05 | $62,106,386,851 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $28.05 | $62,106,386,851 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $28.05 | $62,106,386,851 | 13 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 4 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 5 recorded
1 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.