Allegion (ALLE)
NYSEIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$157.12+1.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ALLE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 10.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers
ALLE — earnings miss
Dated 2026-04-28
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 28, 2026, Allegion plc (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its first quarter 2026 results. The information in this Form 8-K and the exhibit attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities under that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amend…
Why it matters: Updates on the share buyback program may show trust in cash flow and spending.
Supportive ifMore share buybacks were announced beyond the $500 million program.
Worry ifNo news or updates about the share buyback program.
Why it matters: A drop below this level may show cash flow problems that affect future investments.
Worry ifCash flow from operations was below 85% of adjusted net income.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations remains at or above 95% of adjusted net income.
Why it matters: A drop below this level shows possible margin pressure. This affects profit outlook.
Worry ifQ3 operating margin was below 22.1%.
Less concerning ifQ3 operating margin was above 23.0%.
Why it matters: More share repurchases show strong capital use and confidence in the business.
Supportive ifThere is news of share repurchases over $500 million.
Worry ifNo announcements of further share repurchases in the next quarter.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$109 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $224 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,984 loss on $10,000 · 29.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Higher margins show good cost management and pricing plans.
Supportive ifAdjusted operating margin for Q3 is more than 24.5%.
Worry ifAdjusted operating margin for Q3 is less than 24.0%.
Why it matters: Lower EPS guidance means there may be problems with profits and growth.
Worry ifManagement lowers adjusted EPS guidance for 2026. It is now below $8.85.
Less concerning ifManagement raises adjusted EPS guidance for 2026. It is now above $9.00.
Why it matters: Falling below this EPS means there are challenges in keeping earnings growth.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS for Q3 reported below $2.20.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EPS for Q3 reported above $2.30.
Why it matters: A decline in revenue growth in this key region could indicate broader market weakness.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth in the Americas reported below 8.9%.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth in the Americas reported above 11.8%.
Why it matters: Fixing ERP issues could boost efficiency and revenue growth.
Supportive ifManagement says production rates improved a lot after ERP was put in place.
Worry ifThere are still delays or problems with ERP that affect production.
Why it matters: Improvement would suggest recovery in a key region that has shown weakness.
Supportive ifThere were good signs of demand in European markets.
Worry ifWeak demand signs continue in European markets.
Why it matters: Active buybacks show management believes in the company's value. This can help share price.
Supportive ifIn Q2 2026, share repurchases were over $100 million.
Worry ifNo share buyback activity announced in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: The company's growth outlook is getting weaker. This is especially true in the Americas.
Worry ifQ3 organic revenue growth was below 3.5%.
Less concerning ifQ3 organic revenue growth was above 4.5%.