Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
Aeluma, Inc. (ALMU)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$6.00-17.36%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ALMU yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Net losses improve from -$1.8M in Q3 2026 | Management is focused on reducing losses. | Broken | Net losses worsen beyond -$1.8M in next 4 quarters | Net income: $-4.013M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: Net loss narrows vs -$1.8M in 2026-Q3. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Sep 16, 2026-4,013,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making growth business, not a proven durable compounder. The current thesis state is watch: recent momentum weakened, and performance is well below its industry cohort, while management continues to pursue funding and manufacturing progress.
A specific valuation measure and market expectations are not provided, so whether the shares are cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers cannot be assessed from this evidence. The recent decline in the thesis signal and earnings miss suggest investors are already facing weaker operating momentum, but the evidence does not show precisely what the market assumes.
Near term, results may remain uneven: fiscal 2026 revenue was $4.5 million, slightly below the prior year, and a September earnings miss followed an earlier guidance reduction. Management reported six new contracts totaling $5.3 million and agreements with Tower Semiconductor and Sumitomo Chemical, but no production-volume data shows how much these steps have advanced manufacturing readiness.
A key company-specific test is whether ALMU reverses course and raises guidance next quarter after the prior reduction. The multi-year view also hinges on whether contracts and partnerships support revenue growth and manufacturing progress; broader support could come if interest rates ease or major technology companies stabilize.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis depends on a clear improvement in execution, revenue direction, and manufacturing readiness; current evidence is mixed and the risk level is high. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Aeluma, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Operating loss narrows vs -$3.35M in 2026-Q3. |
| Broken |
| Operating losses worsen beyond -$3.35M in next 4 quarters |
Operating income: $-4.372M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: Operating loss narrows vs -$3.35M in 2026-Q3. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Sep 16, 2026-4,372,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches at least $4.2M in FY 2026 | A primary condition in Aeluma, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=4.2 USD_MILLIONS. | Under Pressure | Revenue falls below $4.2M in FY 2026 | Revenue: $582,000 FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=4.2 USD_MILLIONS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 16, 2026582,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.30 → $-0.53 · observed estimates
$0.02B → $0.02B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.30 | $20,370,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.58 | $18,965,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.58 | $18,965,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.58 | $18,965,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.58 | $18,965,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.58 | $18,965,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.58 | $18,965,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.58 | $18,965,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.58 | $18,965,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.58 | $18,965,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.58 | $18,965,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.58 | $18,965,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.58 | $18,965,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.58 | $18,965,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.58 | $18,965,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.58 | $18,965,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.58 | $18,965,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.58 | $18,965,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.58 | $18,965,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.58 | $18,965,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.58 | $18,965,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.58 | $18,965,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.58 | $18,965,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.58 | $18,965,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.58 | $18,965,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.58 | $18,965,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.58 | $18,965,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.58 | $18,965,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.58 | $18,965,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.58 | $18,965,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.58 | $18,965,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.58 | $18,965,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.58 | $18,965,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.58 | $18,965,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.58 | $18,965,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.58 | $18,965,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.58 | $18,965,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.58 | $18,965,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.58 | $18,965,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.58 | $18,965,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.58 | $18,965,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.58 | $18,965,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.58 | $18,965,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.58 | $18,965,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.58 | $18,965,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.53 | $18,310,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.53 | $18,310,000 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.