Aeluma, Inc. (ALMU)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$12.94+0.86%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ALMU
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
A comparable price-assumption read is not available for this company.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 72 industry peers
ALMU — government funding
Dated 2026-07-29
Regulation FD Disclosure. On July 29, 2026, Aeluma, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its entry into a CHIPS and Science Act Letter of Intent with the U.S. Department of Commerce. The text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated herein by reference. The information reported under this Item 7.01, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of th…
Why it matters: The revenue trend will show if the company can recover from recent declines. This affects investor confidence.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue shows growth compared to Q1 2026.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 revenue declines further compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Meeting the revenue guidance of $4.2M to $4.6M would signal recovery and growth potential.
Supportive ifQ4 revenue reaches at least $4.2 million.
Worry ifQ4 revenue is less than $4.2 million. This shows ongoing problems.
Why it matters: Worsening losses show there are bigger problems with costs and operations.
Worry ifOperating income was worse than -$3.35M. This confirms a negative trend.
Less concerning ifOperating income was better than -$3.35M. This suggests some improvement.
Why it matters: Final approval could give up to $30 million. This money would help Aeluma's R&D and sales.
Supportive ifAeluma gets final approval and signs award papers for the CHIPS Act funding.
Worry ifThe funding is denied or delayed beyond the expected timeline.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$455 on $10,000 · ±4.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,046 loss on $10,000 · 10.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,043 loss on $10,000 · 60.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Confirming the revenue guidance shows Aeluma can deliver on contracts. This is key for investor trust.
Supportive ifRevenue for FY 2026 meets or exceeds the guidance range of $4.2M to $4.6M.
Worry ifRevenue under $4.2M shows ongoing problems in execution.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth signals broader challenges. This could impact Aeluma's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: Revenue below this level would show continued decline, raising concerns about growth.
Worry ifQ3 revenue was below $1.22M. This shows revenue is still going down.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue was above $1.22M. This may mean revenue is stabilizing.
Why it matters: Meeting this revenue target shows Aeluma is growing. It also helps investor confidence.
Supportive ifRevenue for the fiscal year reaches at least $4.2 million.
Worry ifRevenue falls below $4.2 million for the fiscal year.
Why it matters: Aeluma has stable cash reserves. This shows it can fund operations without losing equity.
Supportive ifCash and cash equivalents remain above $37 million in the next quarterly report.
Worry ifCash and cash equivalents drop below $37 million.
Why it matters: Higher losses show there are still problems with financial health.
Worry ifNet income reported worse than -$1.8M, confirming negative trend.
Less concerning ifNet income was better than -$1.8M. This suggests better loss management.
Why it matters: Confirming the earnings beat may show a good change in the company's performance.
Supportive ifEarnings results show a better outcome than earlier predictions.
Worry ifEarnings results miss expectations and show a decline.
Why it matters: A decrease in net income losses would signal better financial health. This is crucial for investor confidence.
Supportive ifNet income loss decreases from -$1.8M in Q3.
Worry ifNet income loss increases beyond -$1.8M in Q3.
Why it matters: Better operating income means Aeluma is managing costs well. This is key for long-term success.
Supportive ifOperating income loss decreases from -$3.35 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifOperating income loss may go beyond -$3.35 million in future quarters.
Why it matters: Getting new contracts is important for R&D and growth. This helps Aeluma's plan.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of new contracts valued at over $1 million each.
Worry ifNo new contracts announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Meeting this target would signal progress toward the full-year revenue goal of $4.2M to $4.6M.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue reported at $1.5 million or higher.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported below $1.5 million.
Why it matters: Getting this funding would give important resources. This would speed up R&D and commercialization.
Supportive ifFinalizing award documents for up to $30 million in CHIPS Act funding.
Worry ifNot finishing the funding agreement or delays in getting it done.
Why it matters: Getting more contracts would support Aeluma's growth plan. It would also help fund R&D.
Supportive ifNew contracts announced beyond the six already secured. These total over $5 million.
Worry ifNo new contracts announced before the end of fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Progress in these deals could help with manufacturing. This would make operations bigger.
Watch forLook for public news about more production or good results from these deals.
Also watch forNo updates or progress reported on these partnerships.