Aeluma, Inc. (ALMU)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$6.00-17.36%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ALMU
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
A comparable price-assumption read is not available for this company.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 40 industry peers
ALMU — earnings miss
Dated 2026-09-16
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On September 16, 2026, Aeluma, Inc. (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended June 30, 2026, which were disclosed in the annual report on Form 10-K filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on September 16, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information reported under this
Why it matters: Paid design work would show that customer talks are moving toward product work. Management named this a fiscal 2027 focus.
Supportive ifAeluma names a customer and signs an AI datacom NRE deal worth at least $1 million.
Worry ifAeluma reports no signed AI datacom NRE deal by its next two earnings reports, or says talks have stopped.
Why it matters: The July letter is not a final award. Signed papers would set the funding and share terms for Aeluma’s plans.
Supportive ifAeluma and Commerce sign final award papers. The papers list the funding amount, share terms, and project milestones.
Worry ifAeluma reports that talks ended without final papers, or that the award amount is cut or delayed.
Why it matters: More wafer capacity is a key step in Aeluma’s move from early research work to product scale.
Supportive ifAeluma reports the new MOCVD tools are running and gives a wafer output figure above its prior level.
Worry ifAeluma reports tool delays, no more wafer output, or a pause in capacity plans.
Why it matters: FY 2026 revenue was $4.5 million, mostly from government research contracts. Growth would show progress beyond that base.
Supportive ifFY 2027 revenue tops $4.5 million. Reported sales come from commercial products or customer work.
Worry ifFY 2027 revenue is $4.5 million or lower, or remains mostly from government research contracts.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$363 on $10,000 · ±3.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $991 loss on $10,000 · 9.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,901 loss on $10,000 · 79.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.