Amgen (AMGN)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-09-04
$437.23-1.55%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — EPS near guidance mid-point: EPS guidance mid $16.44 vs target $16.36.
Amgen grows revenue about 6% yearly, driven by innovation. Profit margins stay stable with EPS guidance near $16.36 for 2026. The company manages capital well, increasing debt strategically to fund growth. Recent court wins support key drug revenues.
Regulators threaten to revoke rights to a rare-disease drug, risking growth. Patent lawsuits and product withdrawals raise concerns about innovation. The recent selloff reflects these risks and soft guidance.
The price is about 21% above our fair value near $302, reflecting roughly 3% revenue growth. Our fair value is below the Street median, indicating some optimism in the market that we do not fully share.
Breaks if: Debt falls significantly below $54B without clear capital plan
Breaks if: EPS falls below $15.62 in FY26
Marketing authorization revoked for key rare-disease drug
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder, with a focus on long-term growth through innovation. The current thesis state is intact, as recent financial performance remains strong within its industry.
The market currently prices AMGN as relatively cheap compared to its peers, with an expectations gap indicating that some positive performance is anticipated. However, the valuation is not overly aggressive, suggesting that the stock is not priced for significant growth.
Management is on track with its priorities, including delivering growth through innovation and managing capital effectively. Recent financial results have been strong, but there is a low probability of missing earnings expectations, although past misses could weigh on sentiment.
The thesis hinges on several factors, including guidance from management in upcoming calls, the performance of sector bellwethers like LLY and JNJ, and broader economic indicators such as job reports. Any negative shifts in these areas could impact sentiment and performance.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a positive outlook. Key product sales are growing despite pricing pressures, indicating strong demand. The company is also expected to deliver long-term growth through innovation.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Focus on expanding product sales via volume growth, new indications, and advancing pipeline molecules through Phase 3 clinical trials.
Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. Total revenues grew from $8.2B in 2025-Q1 to $10.1B in 2026-Q2, with six key growth drivers growing 26% year over year in 2026-Q2. Management consistently emphasizes innovation and pipeline advancement, and the trajectory is delivering sustained growth.
“CEO: 'Our six key growth drivers grew 26% year over year... confident in our ability to deliver growth well into the next decade.'”
“CEO: 'We're confident in our ability to deliver attractive long-term growth.'”
“CEO: 'We enter 2026 with momentum across a broad portfolio... clear path towards advancing innovative therapies to deliver sustained long-term growth.'”
“CEO: 'We're focused on expanding access, advancing innovation, and sustaining long-term growth.'”
“CEO: 'We continue to invest in science that enables longer, healthier lives and supports sustainable, long-term growth.'”
“CEO: 'Ongoing new product launches and successful Phase 3 trial results... confident in our long-term growth prospects.'”
“CEO: 'Robust growth in sales and earnings throughout 2024 reflects the momentum of our business... investing heavily in our rapidly advancing pipeline.'”
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $36B in FY26
Focus on expanding product sales via volume growth, new indications, and advancing pipeline molecules through Phase 3 clinical trials.
Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. Total revenues grew from $8.2B in 2025-Q1 to $10.1B in 2026-Q2, with six key growth drivers growing 26% year over year in 2026-Q2. Management consistently emphasizes innovation and pipeline advancement, and the trajectory is delivering sustained growth.
“CEO: 'Our six key growth drivers grew 26% year over year... confident in our ability to deliver growth well into the next decade.'”
“CEO: 'We're confident in our ability to deliver attractive long-term growth.'”
“CEO: 'We enter 2026 with momentum across a broad portfolio... clear path towards advancing innovative therapies to deliver sustained long-term growth.'”
“CEO: 'We're focused on expanding access, advancing innovation, and sustaining long-term growth.'”
“CEO: 'We continue to invest in science that enables longer, healthier lives and supports sustainable, long-term growth.'”
“CEO: 'Ongoing new product launches and successful Phase 3 trial results... confident in our long-term growth prospects.'”
“CEO: 'Robust growth in sales and earnings throughout 2024 reflects the momentum of our business... investing heavily in our rapidly advancing pipeline.'”
Over the next 1 to 3 years, AMGN's performance will depend on its ability to maintain growth and navigate potential risks in the healthcare sector. Not investment advice.