Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Amgen (AMGN)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-11-04
$460.28-3.80%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
24.45 → 24.62 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 19 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 20 to 19; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AMGN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Debt management to fund growth | The company manages capital well, increasing debt strategically to fund growth. | Intact | Debt falls significantly below $54B without clear capital plan | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Share repurchases not to exceed $3.0 billion.” “• Share repurchases not to exceed $500 million.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a large pharmaceutical company with a growth-through-innovation thesis, rather than a turnaround. The thesis is intact, and management has kept its main growth priority on track, though evidence is mixed on MariTide, its Phase 3 clinical program.
The valuation evidence describes AMGN as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is 0.31 and confidence in that model is medium. No pricing fragility flags were raised, but the snapshot does not detail the market’s specific growth assumptions.
Recent financial performance is strong: revenue rose from $8.2 billion in 2025-Q1 to $10.1 billion in 2026-Q2, and six key growth drivers grew 26% year over year in 2026-Q2. Near term, earnings miss risk is assessed as low, but a past deep miss and declining earnings surprises warrant attention; debt and capital spending have also risen.
Over the next year, continued revenue growth depends in part on innovation and the progress of MariTide’s Phase 3 studies. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued strength among healthcare peers could support the sector backdrop; weaker employment data may add recession concern.
Over a 1-to-3-year view, strong recent results and on-track growth priorities support an intact thesis, while clinical progress, debt management, and the next guidance update remain key tests. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
EPS near guidance mid-point | Profit margins stay stable with EPS guidance near $16.36 for 2026. | Under Pressure | EPS falls below $15.62 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $7.08 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $16.36 in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20267.08 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain marketing rights for key rare-disease drug | Recent court wins support key drug revenues. | Intact | Marketing authorization revoked for key rare-disease drug | No revocation reported News shows positive Tezspire trial results and raised 2026 guidance; no regulatory revocation events reported. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 7 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““Amgen delivered another strong quarter as our strategy for long-term growth continued to produce results across the enterprise,” said Robert A.” “Our six key growth drivers grew 26% year over year, generating nearly 70% of second-quarter product sales.” Revenue was $10.365 billion in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue growth through innovation | A primary condition in Amgen's published investment case. The stated target is >= $37.8B revenue in FY26. | Intact | Revenue falls below $36B in FY26 | Revenue: $10.365B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $37.8B revenue in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 202610,365,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 7 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““Amgen delivered another strong quarter as our strategy for long-term growth continued to produce results across the enterprise,” said Robert A.” “Our six key growth drivers grew 26% year over year, generating nearly 70% of second-quarter product sales.” Revenue was $10.365 billion in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$23.46 → $24.62 · observed estimates
$38.69B → $40.68B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $23.46 | $38,689,934,970 | 31 / 29 |
| 2026-07-25 | $23.46 | $38,689,934,970 | 31 / 29 |
| 2026-07-26 | $23.46 | $38,689,934,970 | 31 / 29 |
| 2026-07-27 | $23.44 | $38,764,673,832 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-07-28 | $23.46 | $38,689,934,970 | 31 / 29 |
| 2026-07-29 | $23.44 | $38,663,107,390 | 31 / 29 |
| 2026-07-30 | $23.44 | $38,663,107,390 | 31 / 29 |
| 2026-07-31 | $23.44 | $38,661,176,350 | 31 / 29 |
| 2026-08-01 | $23.44 | $38,661,176,350 | 31 / 29 |
| 2026-08-02 | $23.44 | $38,661,176,350 | 31 / 29 |
| 2026-08-03 | $23.44 | $38,661,176,350 | 31 / 29 |
| 2026-08-04 | $23.44 | $38,661,176,350 | 31 / 29 |
| 2026-08-05 | $23.44 | $38,661,176,350 | 31 / 29 |
| 2026-08-06 | $23.44 | $38,661,176,350 | 31 / 29 |
| 2026-08-07 | $23.94 | $39,635,689,075 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-08-08 | $23.94 | $39,635,689,075 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-08-09 | $24.01 | $39,610,042,210 | 32 / 30 |
| 2026-08-10 | $24.01 | $39,610,042,210 | 32 / 30 |
| 2026-08-11 | $23.94 | $39,635,689,075 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-08-12 | $24.22 | $39,938,363,890 | 33 / 31 |
| 2026-08-13 | $23.94 | $39,635,689,075 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-08-14 | $23.94 | $39,635,689,075 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-08-15 | $23.94 | $39,635,689,075 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-08-16 | $23.94 | $39,635,689,075 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-08-17 | $23.94 | $39,635,689,075 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-08-18 | $23.94 | $39,635,689,075 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-08-19 | $23.94 | $39,635,689,075 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-08-20 | $23.94 | $39,635,689,075 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-08-21 | $24.42 | $40,291,689,654 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-08-22 | $24.42 | $40,291,689,654 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-08-23 | $24.42 | $40,291,689,654 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-08-24 | $24.42 | $40,291,689,654 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-08-25 | $24.42 | $40,291,689,654 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-08-26 | $24.42 | $40,291,689,654 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-08-27 | $24.42 | $40,291,689,654 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-08-28 | $24.42 | $40,291,689,654 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-08-29 | $24.42 | $40,293,148,275 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-08-30 | $24.42 | $40,293,148,275 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-08-31 | $24.42 | $40,293,148,275 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-09-01 | $24.42 | $40,293,148,275 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-09-02 | $24.42 | $40,293,148,275 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-09-03 | $24.42 | $40,293,132,737 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-09-04 | $24.42 | $40,293,132,737 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-09-05 | $24.43 | $40,305,272,413 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-09-06 | $24.43 | $40,303,824,137 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-09-07 | $24.43 | $40,303,823,447 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-09-08 | $24.43 | $40,303,824,137 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-09-09 | $24.42 | $40,334,102,768 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-09-10 | $24.42 | $40,334,102,768 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-09-11 | $24.42 | $40,332,840,792 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-09-12 | $24.42 | $40,332,840,792 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-09-13 | $24.42 | $40,332,840,792 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-09-14 | $24.42 | $40,332,840,792 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-09-15 | $24.42 | $40,332,840,792 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-09-16 | $24.42 | $40,332,840,792 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-09-17 | $24.40 | $40,351,917,957 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-09-18 | $24.40 | $40,351,917,957 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-09-19 | $24.42 | $40,332,324,230 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-09-20 | $24.42 | $40,332,324,230 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-09-21 | $24.42 | $40,332,324,230 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-09-22 | $24.42 | $40,332,334,212 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-09-23 | $24.42 | $40,332,340,478 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-09-24 | $24.43 | $40,337,443,237 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-09-25 | $24.45 | $40,355,443,237 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-09-26 | $24.45 | $40,355,443,237 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-09-27 | $24.45 | $40,355,443,237 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-09-28 | $24.45 | $40,355,443,237 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-09-29 | $24.45 | $40,355,443,237 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-09-30 | $24.45 | $40,355,443,237 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-10-01 | $24.45 | $40,355,443,237 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-10-02 | $24.45 | $40,355,429,444 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-10-03 | $24.45 | $40,355,429,444 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-10-04 | $24.45 | $40,355,429,444 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-10-05 | $24.45 | $40,355,429,444 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-10-06 | $24.45 | $40,355,429,444 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-10-07 | $24.45 | $40,355,429,444 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-10-08 | $24.47 | $40,386,278,747 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-10-09 | $24.49 | $40,401,375,299 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-10-10 | $24.49 | $40,408,128,259 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-10-11 | $24.49 | $40,408,128,259 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-10-12 | $24.49 | $40,408,128,259 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-10-13 | $24.50 | $40,434,055,190 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-10-14 | $24.51 | $40,449,935,282 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-10-15 | $24.51 | $40,449,935,282 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-10-16 | $24.51 | $40,449,945,627 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-10-17 | $24.51 | $40,449,945,627 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-10-18 | $24.51 | $40,450,311,023 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-10-19 | $24.51 | $40,450,311,023 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-10-20 | $24.51 | $40,448,904,117 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-10-21 | $24.51 | $40,448,904,117 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-10-22 | $24.52 | $40,448,904,117 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-10-23 | $24.49 | $40,445,391,013 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-10-24 | $24.50 | $40,471,039,920 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-10-25 | $24.50 | $40,471,039,920 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-10-26 | $24.50 | $40,471,058,358 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-10-27 | $24.50 | $40,471,058,358 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-10-28 | $24.51 | $40,478,712,334 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-10-29 | $24.51 | $40,478,708,886 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-10-30 | $24.51 | $40,491,915,782 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-10-31 | $24.51 | $40,491,915,782 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-11-01 | $24.51 | $40,491,915,782 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-11-02 | $24.51 | $40,491,915,782 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-11-03 | $24.51 | $40,491,915,782 | 19 / 22 |
| 2026-11-04 | $24.62 | $40,680,058,953 | 19 / 22 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 17 Hold · 5 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 19 recorded
8 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.