Amgen (AMGN)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-09-04
$437.23-1.55%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AMGN
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $437 AMGN trades at 20× p/e, below its 22× p/e peer median, but our blended $331 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: quality doesn't explain valuation multiples in this sub-industry, so the peer comparison is a weak guide. Analysts target $230–$460. Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $463 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $388.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $295.32 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $310.00 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $128.07 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$230.00 – $460.00 (median $388.50) · 24 analysts · as of 2026-09-04
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 23% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 20.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $21.00/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $103.99 |
| — |
| — |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $278.76 | 15.9 | 22.53 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $403.73 | 21.6 | 18.70 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $434.45 | 18.1 | 23.98 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $797.04 | 11.4 | 70.03 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $141.18 | 6.3 | 22.37 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $98.08 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $389.96 | 17.4 | 22.37 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $506.67 | 22.0 | 23.04 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $424.16 | 21.6 | 19.65 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $503.08 | 18.1 | 27.77 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $870.53 | 11.4 | 76.48 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $175.27 | 6.3 | 27.77 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $484.12 | 17.4 | 27.77 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $438.35 | 21.6 | 20.31 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $521.87 | 18.1 | 28.81 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $903.05 | 11.4 | 79.34 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $181.82 | 6.3 | 28.81 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $502.21 | 17.4 | 28.81 | Analyst | high |