Amgen (AMGN)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-07-08
$367.99-0.03%
Close 2026-07-08 · 1-day change
Reading AMGN? This analysis is rebuilt every market day. Get it tracked free. No credit card.
Track AMGN free→NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-07-08
Reading AMGN? This analysis is rebuilt every market day. Get it tracked free. No credit card.
Track AMGN free→QuarterlyIQ Insights · AMGN
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 14 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $367.99. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $368 AMGN trades at 17× p/e, below its 22× p/e peer median, but our blended $304 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: quality doesn't explain valuation multiples in this sub-industry, so the peer comparison is a weak guide. Analysts target $303–$427. Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $386 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
$303.00 – $427.00 (median $345.00) · 12 analysts · as of 2026-07-01
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 2% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 21.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $20.52/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $345.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $255.82 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $217.84 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $145.57 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $91.65 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $353.45 | 21.6 | 16.36 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $181.75 | 14.6 | 18.21 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $331.19 | 21.0 | 15.80 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $477.46 | 21.6 | 22.10 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $687.12 | 10.0 | 68.42 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $61.34 | 2.8 | 22.10 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $94.22 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $368.12 | 16.7 | 22.10 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $495.80 | 21.6 | 22.95 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $399.02 | 21.6 | 18.47 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $378.07 | 21.0 | 18.04 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $519.51 | 21.6 | 24.05 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $732.41 | 10.0 | 72.93 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $66.74 | 2.8 | 24.05 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $400.53 | 16.7 | 24.05 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $432.62 | 21.6 | 20.02 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $412.95 | 21.0 | 19.70 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $535.82 | 21.6 | 24.80 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $755.42 | 10.0 | 75.22 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $68.84 | 2.8 | 24.80 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $413.11 | 16.7 | 24.80 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.