Amgen (AMGN)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-09-04
$437.23-1.55%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AMGN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 31.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 27.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AMGN — CEO transition
Dated 2026-05-19
Chief Financial Officer — Peter H. Griffith: Peter H. Griffith is retiring from the role of Chief Financial Officer, and Thomas Dittrich has been appointed as his successor.
Why it matters: KHK4083 may be an important product for Amgen to treat atopic dermatitis. Good trial results could help sales.
Supportive ifPositive results from the Phase 3 trials for KHK4083 are announced.
Worry ifNegative trial results are reported or the trial is delayed.
Why it matters: Prolia's sales are important. Big drops could show strong competition.
Worry ifProlia sales decline more than 30% year over year.
Less concerning ifProlia sales stabilize or grow year over year.
Why it matters: Amgen's debt management impacts its financial health. More debt could mean risks in spending.
Worry ifTotal debt remains below $58 billion after Q2 2026 earnings.
Less concerning ifTotal debt exceeds $60 billion after Q2 2026 earnings.
Why it matters: Amgen's strong product sales show it is handling pricing and competition well.
Supportive ifQ3 product sales growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 product sales growth is below 5% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$102 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $231 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,657 loss on $10,000 · 16.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A drop in net income margin may show rising costs or pricing pressures.
Worry ifNet income margin reported below 30%.
Less concerning ifNet income margin remains above 30%.
Why it matters: Approvals are needed to complete the ChemoCentryx deal. This impacts Amgen's growth plans.
Supportive ifAll approvals for the ChemoCentryx deal are granted by the end of Q2 2026.
Worry ifBig regulatory issues or denials delay the deal past Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Completing this acquisition could enhance Amgen's growth by expanding its portfolio in rare diseases. Investors will want to see how this impacts future revenue.
Supportive ifThe Irish High Court and antitrust officials approve the deal.
Worry ifThe acquisition may face delays or be blocked by regulators.
Why it matters: Higher R&D costs may mean more investment for future growth but could hurt profits.
Watch forR&D expenses reported above 20% of product sales.
Also watch forR&D expenses reported below 20% of product sales.
Why it matters: Good integration can help Amgen grow with new therapies. It shows how well Amgen handles acquisitions.
Supportive ifManagement gives a good update on the deal and its benefits.
Worry ifManagement reports issues in the deal that may delay benefits.
Why it matters: High free cash flow helps Amgen invest in growth and return money to shareholders.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported above $3 billion in Q3.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $2 billion in Q3.
Why it matters: Updates on MariTide trials are important. They help us understand future money and pipeline strength.
Watch forPositive updates on ongoing Phase 3 trials for MariTide.
Also watch forDelays or bad news about the Phase 3 trials of MariTide.
Why it matters: Changes in capital spending can show shifts in Amgen's growth plans and investment focus.
Watch forGuidance for capital spending goes up beyond $2.6 billion.
Also watch forGuidance for capital spending goes down below $2.3 billion.