Amgen (AMGN)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-11-04
$460.28-3.80%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AMGN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 35.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 31.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AMGN — CEO transition
Dated 2026-10-26
Director — David W. Gibbs: The filing discloses the appointment of a new independent director to the Board, which is a routine governance event and not the departure of a senior executive.
Why it matters: XGEVA sales fell 34% in Q2, with lower volume and prices. More erosion would add to the pressure on Amgen's product sales.
Worry ifXGEVA sales fall more than 34% year over year in a reported quarter.
Less concerning ifXGEVA sales fall less than 34% year over year, or return to year-over-year growth.
Why it matters: Q2 sales rose 9%, but costs rose faster. Q3 results can show if sales growth continues and costs stay in check.
Watch forQ3 product sales grow at least 9% year over year, and non-GAAP operating margin is at least 48.4%.
Also watch forQ3 product sales grow less than 9% year over year, or non-GAAP operating margin falls below 48.4%.
Why it matters: Prolia sales fell 32% in Q2 as volume and prices fell. A deeper drop would add to the pressure from biosimilar competition.
Worry ifProlia sales fall more than 32% year over year in a reported quarter.
Less concerning ifProlia sales fall less than 32% year over year, or return to year-over-year growth.
Why it matters: Both medicines grew through higher sales volume in Q2. Continued growth would support Amgen's effort to offset price pressure.
Supportive ifIn the next reported quarter, Repatha sales grow at least 37% and TEZSPIRE sales grow at least 42% year over year.
Worry ifRepatha sales grow less than 37% or TEZSPIRE sales grow less than 42% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$114 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $231 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,657 loss on $10,000 · 16.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Amgen is spending more on MariTide trials. Clear progress would support its plan to grow through new medicines.
Supportive ifAmgen says MariTide Phase 3 studies are enrolling or moving ahead on time. No delays have been reported.
Worry ifAmgen reports a delay, paused enrollment, or a missed goal in a MariTide Phase 3 study.