Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Amerisafe, Inc. (AMSF)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$20.33-0.05%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.01 → 1.88 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AMSF yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Grow gross premiums written | A primary condition in Amerisafe, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=5.6% YoY growth. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 5.6% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a small insurer with a value-oriented, execution-sensitive thesis, rather than a clear durable growth story. The thesis is in a watch state after recent earnings misses, with elevated near-term risk and fragile earnings quality.
AMSF is cheap versus peers, and the evidence suggests the market is not pricing in a full stack of business fragility. The expectations gap is modestly negative, so the valuation discount does not by itself show that weak execution is fully reflected.
Over the multi-year view, continued premium growth could support the business, but recent execution is mixed: voluntary premium growth slowed to 0.8% in 2026-Q3, while underwriting profit fell from the prior-year quarter and the expense ratio rose. Near term, consecutive earnings misses and a 55% estimated miss probability point to elevated risk; management’s stated focus on disciplined underwriting has yet to show strong delivery.
The central swing factor is whether AMSF can turn premium growth into stronger underwriting profit while restoring expense discipline. In the near term, rate changes and results from sector bellwethers FNF, FAF, and ACT could affect the Financials backdrop, though the evidence does not establish AMSF-specific outcomes from those signals.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the long-term thesis depends on better underwriting execution and a steadier growth pace; the current peer discount comes with fragile earnings quality and elevated near-term risk. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Amerisafe, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is <=29.7%. |
| Intact |
| Expense ratio rises above 30% next year |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase voluntary premiums on policies | Voluntary premiums rose 8.2% last quarter. | Intact | Voluntary premiums growth falls below 5% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.08 → $1.88 · observed estimates
$0.35B → $0.34B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.08 | $351,915,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.05 | $347,577,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.05 | $347,577,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.05 | $347,577,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.05 | $347,577,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.02 | $349,427,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.02 | $349,427,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.02 | $349,427,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.02 | $349,427,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.02 | $349,427,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.02 | $349,427,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.02 | $349,427,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.02 | $349,427,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.02 | $349,427,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.02 | $349,427,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.02 | $349,427,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.02 | $349,427,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $2.02 | $349,427,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.02 | $349,427,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.02 | $349,427,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.01 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.95 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.90 | $349,780,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.88 | $340,571,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.88 | $340,571,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.88 | $340,571,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.88 | $340,571,500 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.88 | $340,571,500 | 2 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.