Amerisafe, Inc. (AMSF)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$20.34-0.73%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AMSF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -12.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AMSF — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-28
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 28, 2026, AMERISAFE, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Why it matters: The ratio rose to 32.5% in Q3 from 31.1% a year earlier. Another increase would add pressure to insurance profits.
Worry ifQ4 net underwriting expense ratio is above 32.5%.
Less concerning ifQ4 net underwriting expense ratio falls below 32.5%.
Why it matters: Q3 gross premiums written fell 4.5% year over year. A rebound would show that late-quarter new business gains are taking hold.
Supportive ifQ4 gross premiums written rise year over year, and voluntary premiums grow faster than Q3's 0.8%.
Worry ifQ4 gross premiums written fall year over year again, or voluntary premium growth turns negative.
Why it matters: A higher ratio leaves less profit from insurance. It reached 96.5% in Q3, up from 90.6% a year earlier.
Worry ifQ4 net combined ratio is above 95%, after Q3's 96.5% reading.
Less concerning ifQ4 net combined ratio falls below 95%. Underwriting profit tops Q3's $2.505 million.
Why it matters: Audits added $1.6 million less in premiums in Q3. Cancellations and other changes more than erased that gain.
Supportive ifPayroll audits and related premium changes add to Q4 premiums written, not reduce them.
Worry ifPayroll audits and related premium changes cut premiums written again, or hurt results in Q4.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$116 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $315 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,861 loss on $10,000 · 48.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.