Amerisafe, Inc. (AMSF)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$25.99-1.22%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AMSF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 6.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers
AMSF — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-21
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 21, 2026, AMERISAFE, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Why it matters: The new CFO may bring fresh strategies to enhance financial performance. This could impact growth and cost management.
Watch forThe CFO shares new plans that improve financial results in three months.
Also watch forNo new initiatives or strategies announced by the CFO within three months.
Why it matters: A drop in return on equity may mean less profit and lower investor confidence.
Worry ifReturn on average equity falls below 20% in Q3.
Less concerning ifReturn on average equity remains above 20% in Q3.
Why it matters: An increase in net income would show recovery from recent earnings issues. This helps investor confidence.
Supportive ifNet income increases by more than 10% quarter over quarter in Q3.
Worry ifNet income declines further or remains flat in Q3.
Why it matters: Stable investment income boosts overall profits. It shows good management of money.
Supportive ifNet investment income exceeds $6.5 million in Q2.
Worry ifNet investment income falls below $6 million in Q2.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$94 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $268 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,063 loss on $10,000 · 40.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Growth in gross premiums helps Amerisafe make more money. It also boosts their market position.
Supportive ifGross premiums written increase year over year by more than 7.9%.
Worry ifGross premiums written increase year over year by less than 5%.
Why it matters: More share buybacks can show that management believes in the company's value and future.
Supportive ifShare repurchases exceed $5 million in Q3.
Worry ifNo share buybacks or less buyback activity in Q3.
Why it matters: If the underwriting expense ratio goes up, costs may rise. This can lower profits. It is an important measure for management.
Worry ifThe underwriting expense ratio exceeds 31.8% in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifThe underwriting expense ratio stays at or below 31.8%.
Why it matters: A new CFO can change financial strategies. This could affect profitability and growth.
Watch forThe new CFO announced good changes in financial strategy. This happened after May 7, 2026.
Also watch forThe new CFO did not announce big changes in financial strategy after May 7, 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in net income could signal deeper issues in profitability. This would concern investors.
Worry ifNet income for Q2 2026 is reported below $8 million.
Less concerning ifNet income for Q2 2026 is reported at $8 million or higher.
Why it matters: The net combined ratio shows how well the company is managing risk. A higher ratio means lower profits.
Worry ifNet combined ratio exceeds 95.4%.
Less concerning ifNet combined ratio stays below 93.0%.
Why it matters: A rise in dividends shows good money management. It also shows trust in future earnings.
Supportive ifManagement says they will raise the dividend to more than $0.41 per share.
Worry ifNo dividend increase is announced in Q3.
Why it matters: A drop in underwriting profit could mean worse conditions and higher loss ratios. This can hurt overall profit.
Worry ifUnderwriting profit falls below $3 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifUnderwriting profit remains at or above $3 million in Q3.
Why it matters: A slowdown in net premiums earned could signal weakening demand or competitive pressures. This is critical for maintaining growth.
Worry ifNet premiums earned growth in Q3 is reported below 10%.
Less concerning ifNet premiums earned growth in Q3 exceeds 10%.
Why it matters: If voluntary premiums grow slowly, it may show problems with keeping policies and gaining new ones. This is important for making money in the future.
Worry ifVoluntary premiums growth in Q3 is reported below 5%.
Less concerning ifVoluntary premiums growth in Q3 exceeds 5%.