Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Amerant Bancorp, Inc. (AMTB)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$29.54-1.76%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.79 → 2.90 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AMTB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Net income growth driven by improved credit quality | Amerant Bancorp is improving credit quality, with net income rising from $2.7M to $17.87M in one quarter. | Intact | Net income falls below $2.7M in any quarter after 2026-Q1 | Net income: $25.716M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Net income >= $17.87M in 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 202625,716,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a regional bank investment with a recovery-and-execution thesis, not a clear durable compounder at present. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: recent performance is weak, management execution is volatile, and the latest signals are mixed.
AMTB is expensive versus peers, and the valuation evidence shows an expectations gap. Fragility is rated low because weak execution is not joined by the full set of other flagged risks, but the valuation still leaves limited room for execution to remain weak.
Near term, credit measures improved in the latest quarter: non-performing assets and classified loans fell, while the efficiency ratio improved. However, deposits declined, expenses were slightly higher, and company momentum fell sharply; management also said loan reductions were primarily due to payoffs. The recent earnings beat and announced buybacks are positive signals, but the evidence still shows weak performance relative to the industry cohort.
The multi-year thesis depends on whether AMTB can sustain better credit quality and operating efficiency while stabilizing deposits. A guidance cut or rate cuts from the current level would be unfavorable, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could support sector momentum. The latest loan improvement is less convincing if it mainly reflects payoffs rather than lasting portfolio progress.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, AMTB’s case rests on turning mixed execution into steadier fundamentals, while its expensive valuation and weak recent performance remain concerns. The evidence supports a watch-state long-term thesis, with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain dividend of $0.09 per share | It maintains a steady dividend of $0.09 per share, showing stable returns. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.09 in any quarter | Dividend per share: $0.09 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share = $0.09 per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 3, 20260.09 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Earnings per share growth to $1.80 in 2026 and $2.13 in 2027 | Analysts expect earnings per share to grow to $1.80 in 2026 and $2.13 in 2027. | Intact | EPS falls below $1.26 in 2025 or fails to reach $1.80 in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Execute authorized share repurchase program | The company also executes a share buyback program to enhance shareholder value. | Intact | Share repurchase program is halted or materially reduced | Buyback active (announced Oct 2026) vs ongoing execution target AMTB announced a share buyback on Oct 22, 2026, alongside a $0.09 dividend, confirming continued capital allocation execution. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.17 → $2.90 · observed estimates
$0.42B → $0.45B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.17 | $416,918,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.17 | $417,051,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.17 | $417,051,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.33 | $423,218,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.33 | $423,218,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.62 | $433,294,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.62 | $433,294,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.61 | $433,294,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.61 | $433,294,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.61 | $433,294,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.61 | $433,294,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.61 | $433,294,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.77 | $434,670,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.77 | $434,670,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.62 | $428,895,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.77 | $434,670,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.77 | $434,670,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.77 | $434,670,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $2.77 | $434,670,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.77 | $434,670,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.77 | $434,670,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.62 | $428,895,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.62 | $428,895,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.62 | $428,895,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.62 | $428,895,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.62 | $428,895,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.62 | $428,895,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.62 | $428,895,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.77 | $434,670,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.77 | $434,670,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.77 | $434,670,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.77 | $434,670,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.77 | $434,670,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.77 | $434,670,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.77 | $434,670,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.77 | $434,670,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.77 | $434,670,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.77 | $434,670,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.77 | $434,670,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.77 | $434,670,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.77 | $434,670,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.77 | $434,670,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.77 | $434,670,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.77 | $434,670,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.77 | $434,670,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.77 | $434,670,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.77 | $434,670,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.77 | $434,670,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.77 | $434,670,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.77 | $434,670,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.77 | $434,670,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.77 | $434,670,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.77 | $434,670,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.77 | $434,670,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.77 | $434,670,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.77 | $434,670,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.77 | $434,670,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.77 | $434,670,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.77 | $434,670,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.77 | $434,670,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.77 | $434,670,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.79 | $435,816,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.79 | $435,816,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.79 | $435,816,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.79 | $435,816,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.79 | $435,816,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.79 | $435,816,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.79 | $435,816,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.79 | $435,816,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.79 | $435,816,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.79 | $435,816,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.79 | $435,816,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.79 | $435,816,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.79 | $435,816,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.79 | $435,816,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.79 | $435,816,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.79 | $435,816,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.83 | $435,816,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.83 | $435,816,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.83 | $435,816,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.83 | $435,816,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.83 | $435,816,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.83 | $435,816,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.83 | $435,816,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.83 | $435,816,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.83 | $435,816,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.83 | $435,816,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.83 | $435,816,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.83 | $435,816,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.83 | $435,816,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.83 | $435,816,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.83 | $435,816,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.83 | $438,391,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.83 | $438,391,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.83 | $438,391,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.83 | $438,391,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.89 | $447,786,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.89 | $447,786,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.89 | $447,786,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.89 | $447,786,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.89 | $447,786,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.89 | $447,786,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.90 | $451,286,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.90 | $451,286,750 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.