Amerant Bancorp, Inc. (AMTB)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$29.68+0.99%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AMTB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -10.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -18.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
AMTB — President transition
Dated 2026-07-28
Chief Risk Officer — Alberto Capriles: Alberto Capriles retired as Chief Risk Officer, and Yecimar Tirado Camacho was appointed to the role.
Why it matters: Better credit quality helps long-term growth. It is important for lasting performance.
Supportive ifCredit quality improves. This means lower default rates.
Worry ifCredit quality gets worse. This shows higher default rates.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company is still growing and improving credit quality.
Watch forEarnings per share exceeds $0.53 in Q3.
Also watch forEarnings per share falls below $0.44 in Q3.
Why it matters: Active share buybacks show that management believes in the company's value. This helps the share price.
Supportive ifThe company repurchases more than 690,000 shares in Q3.
Worry ifNo share repurchases occur in Q3.
Why it matters: Slower deposit growth may show less customer confidence. This could raise funding costs.
Worry ifTotal deposits grow less than 5% from $8.4 billion in Q2.
Less concerning ifTotal deposits grow at or above 5%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$98 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $321 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,211 loss on $10,000 · 22.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Steady net income growth shows that the company is doing well with its plans.
Supportive ifNet income exceeds $21.0 million in Q3.
Worry ifNet income falls below $21.0 million in Q3.
Why it matters: The regular dividend payment shows smart use of money. It rewards shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company pays the dividend of $0.09 per share on August 28, 2026.
Worry ifThe company stops or lowers the dividend payment.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This would impact investor confidence in Amerant Bancorp.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median of the last three years.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median.
Why it matters: Share buybacks show strong capital management. They can increase value for shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company plans more share buybacks beyond the current $16.1 million.
Worry ifNo new share repurchase announcements or a halt in the program.
Why it matters: Better credit quality helps growth. It also builds trust in management.
Supportive ifCredit quality metrics get better. This shows lower default rates or stronger loan performance.
Worry ifCredit quality metrics get worse. This means higher default rates or loan problems.
Why it matters: News about the share buyback can show confidence in the company's worth.
Watch forManagement updates on how the share buyback program is doing or if it is done.
Also watch forManagement gives no news or delays the share buyback program.
Why it matters: Changes in the dividend can affect shareholder returns and how the market sees it.
Worry ifManagement confirms the dividend remains at $0.09 per share.
Less concerning ifManagement announces a cut to the dividend below $0.09 per share.
Why it matters: A stable net interest margin shows good profits. It shows effective management of interest rates.
Watch forNet interest margin remains above 3.50%.
Also watch forNet interest margin falls below 3.50%.
Why it matters: Fewer classified loans mean better credit quality. This helps with steady growth.
Supportive ifClassified loans decrease further from $273.1 million in Q2.
Worry ifClassified loans increase or stay the same in Q3.
Why it matters: More core deposits show that customers trust the bank. This helps fund loans.
Supportive ifCore deposits grow more than 9.4% from Q2.
Worry ifCore deposits grow less than 5% in Q3.