Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Arista Networks (ANET)
NYSEInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-11-05
$159.16-10.82%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.24 → 5.35 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 18 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 18 to 18; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ANET yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Double AI-related sales year over year | A primary condition in Arista Networks's published investment case. The stated target is >=100% YoY AI sales growth next year. | Intact | AI sales growth falls below 50% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ANET is a high-quality growth business rather than a turnaround or deep-value case. Its long-term thesis is intact: recent results remain strong, but company momentum has weakened and risk is elevated.
ANET is expensive versus peers, with a 1.31 premium, and the evidence points to valuation relying on re-rating, or a change in how the market values the business. The expectations gap is slightly negative at -0.08, while priced-in fragility is low; confidence in the valuation model is also low.
Over the multi-year view, management’s repeated focus on revenue growth and strong margins has matched recent results. Revenue increased 57% over six quarters, while gross and operating margins have remained strong. Near term, momentum has fallen, and a guidance cut or continued peer weakness could test execution despite a low estimated miss risk.
The main negative scenario is a guidance cut on the next call, which could lead analysts to lower estimates; recent industry peer misses add to that risk. Favorable factors would include Fed rate cuts and stabilization among technology peers, while continued revenue growth and margin delivery remain central to the multi-year thesis.
For the next 1 to 3 years, ANET’s strong growth and margin record support an intact thesis, but elevated risk and an expensive valuation make continued execution important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Arista Networks's published investment case. The stated target is >=63% next quarter. |
| Improving |
| Gross margin falls below 61% next quarter |
Gross margin: 63.59% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=63% next quarter. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Nov 4, 202663.585411 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain operating margin near 46% next quarter | A primary condition in Arista Networks's published investment case. The stated target is >=46% next quarter. | Intact | Operating margin falls below 44% next quarter | Operating margin: 44.9% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=46% next quarter. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 202644.903762 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue growth near $2.8B next quarter | A primary condition in Arista Networks's published investment case. The stated target is ~$2.8B next quarter. | Intact | Revenue falls below ~$2.6B next quarter | Revenue: $3.658B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$2.8B next quarter. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 20263,657,600,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 6 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““As we deliver our first $3 billion quarter in Q2 2026, it is clear that our Arista 2.0 platform strategy is compelling,” stated Jayshree Ullal, Chairperson and CEO of Arista Networks.” “"We exceeded both our AI networking and campus expansion goals, delivering profitable growth and revenue of $9 billion."” Revenue was $3.658 billion in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.47 → $5.35 · observed estimates
$14.38B → $16.85B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.47 | $14,378,342,230 | 27 / 27 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.47 | $14,378,342,230 | 27 / 27 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.47 | $14,378,342,230 | 27 / 27 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.47 | $14,397,245,025 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.47 | $14,378,342,230 | 27 / 27 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.47 | $14,378,342,230 | 27 / 27 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.47 | $14,378,342,230 | 27 / 27 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.47 | $14,378,342,230 | 27 / 27 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.47 | $14,378,342,230 | 27 / 27 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.47 | $14,378,342,230 | 27 / 27 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.47 | $14,378,342,230 | 27 / 27 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.47 | $14,378,342,230 | 27 / 27 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.47 | $14,378,342,230 | 27 / 27 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.47 | $14,378,342,230 | 27 / 27 |
| 2026-08-07 | $5.05 | $15,902,555,960 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.05 | $15,902,555,960 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.11 | $16,014,237,450 | 27 / 26 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.11 | $16,014,237,450 | 27 / 26 |
| 2026-08-11 | $5.05 | $15,902,555,960 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.16 | $16,156,969,840 | 27 / 26 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.05 | $15,902,555,960 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.05 | $15,902,555,960 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.05 | $15,902,555,960 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.05 | $15,902,555,960 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.05 | $15,902,555,960 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.05 | $15,902,555,960 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.05 | $15,902,555,960 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.05 | $15,902,555,960 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.23 | $16,476,279,747 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.23 | $16,476,279,747 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.23 | $16,476,279,747 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.23 | $16,476,279,747 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.23 | $16,476,279,747 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.23 | $16,476,279,747 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.23 | $16,476,279,747 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.23 | $16,476,279,747 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.23 | $16,476,279,747 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.23 | $16,476,279,747 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.23 | $16,476,279,747 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.23 | $16,476,279,747 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.22 | $16,463,110,152 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.22 | $16,463,110,152 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.22 | $16,463,110,152 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.22 | $16,463,105,035 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.22 | $16,463,105,033 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.22 | $16,463,105,033 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.22 | $16,463,105,033 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.22 | $16,463,105,033 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.22 | $16,463,105,033 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.22 | $16,463,093,495 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.22 | $16,463,093,495 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.22 | $16,463,093,495 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.22 | $16,463,093,495 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.22 | $16,463,093,495 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.22 | $16,463,093,495 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.22 | $16,463,094,622 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.22 | $16,463,094,622 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.23 | $16,463,094,622 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.23 | $16,463,094,622 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.23 | $16,463,094,622 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.23 | $16,463,094,622 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.23 | $16,463,094,622 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.23 | $16,463,094,622 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.23 | $16,463,094,622 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.23 | $16,463,094,622 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.23 | $16,463,094,622 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.23 | $16,463,094,622 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.23 | $16,463,094,622 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.23 | $16,463,094,622 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.24 | $16,515,313,339 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.24 | $16,515,313,339 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.24 | $16,515,313,339 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.24 | $16,515,313,339 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.24 | $16,515,313,339 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.24 | $16,515,317,280 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.24 | $16,515,317,280 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.24 | $16,515,317,280 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.24 | $16,515,317,280 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.25 | $16,570,885,959 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.25 | $16,570,885,959 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.25 | $16,570,885,959 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.25 | $16,570,885,959 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.25 | $16,570,885,959 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.26 | $16,590,811,885 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.26 | $16,590,811,885 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.26 | $16,590,811,885 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.26 | $16,590,810,700 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.26 | $16,590,810,700 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.26 | $16,590,810,700 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.26 | $16,590,810,700 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.26 | $16,590,810,700 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.26 | $16,590,810,700 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.26 | $16,590,810,700 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.26 | $16,590,810,700 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.26 | $16,590,810,700 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.26 | $16,590,810,700 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.26 | $16,590,810,710 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.25 | $16,543,629,229 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.25 | $16,543,629,229 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.25 | $16,543,629,229 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.25 | $16,543,629,229 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.25 | $16,543,629,229 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.25 | $16,543,629,229 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.35 | $16,851,143,741 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-11-05 | $5.35 | $16,851,143,741 | 18 / 21 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 31 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 11 recorded
2 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.