Arista Networks (ANET)
NYSEInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-09-04
$193.78+1.22%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ANET
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 68.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 40.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 27.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 18 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
Why it matters: Good performance of this product could help Arista compete better in AI data centers.
Supportive ifPositive customer feedback or sales growth reported for the XPO MSA product.
Worry ifBad reviews or lower sales for the XPO MSA product.
Why it matters: Hitting this EPS shows Arista can stay profitable while growing.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 non-GAAP EPS reported at or above $0.88.
Worry ifQ2 2026 non-GAAP EPS reported below $0.85.
Why it matters: Hitting this EPS range shows strong profits. It aligns with management's goal to keep earnings growing.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP diluted net income per share reported between $1.06 and $1.08.
Worry ifNon-GAAP diluted net income per share reported below $1.06.
Why it matters: New AI networking products can help Arista's market position. Innovations show they are investing in a growing area.
Supportive ifA press release or event showcasing new AI networking products or features.
Worry ifNo new product news or AI networking innovations in the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$263 on $10,000 · ±2.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $489 loss on $10,000 · 4.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,833 loss on $10,000 · 28.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Deferred revenue growth can indicate future revenue strength. A decline may signal weakening demand.
Watch forDeferred revenue grows by more than 10% in Q3 2026.
Also watch forDeferred revenue declines or grows less than 5% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Happy customers can bring more business and new referrals.
Supportive ifNet promoter score reported above 89.
Worry ifNet promoter score reported below 89.
Why it matters: A lower score means customers are less satisfied. This could hurt future sales.
Worry ifNet promoter score reported below 85.
Less concerning ifNet promoter score reported at or above 89.
Why it matters: Keeping this margin shows the company is controlling costs and growing. It shows efficiency.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP operating margin is at or above 48%.
Worry ifThe non-GAAP operating margin is less than 46%.
Why it matters: This guidance indicates continued strong growth and supports management's revenue goals. It shows if the momentum from Q2 carries into Q3.
Supportive ifActual Q3 revenue reported at or above $3.3 billion.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported below $3.0 billion.
Why it matters: New products can drive revenue growth and strengthen market position. They show commitment to innovation.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least one new AI networking product in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo new AI networking products announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A drop below this level may show cost problems or pricing issues. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifGross margin reported at or above 62%.
Less concerning ifGross margin reported below 60%.