A. O. Smith (AOS)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-05
$66.57-0.75%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AOS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 15.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -6.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 21.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 46 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AOS — earnings miss
Dated 2026-04-30
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 30, 2026, A. O. Smith Corporation (“the Company”) issued a news release announcing the Company’s results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Company’s news release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K (this “Current Report”) and is incorporated by reference herein.
Why it matters: China sales fell 17% in local currency, and weak demand hurt Rest of World earnings. A smaller drop would mark better sales trends before the deal closes.
Supportive ifChina sales fall less than 17% year over year in local currency, or grow.
Worry ifChina sales fall 17% or more year over year in local currency for another quarter.
Why it matters: The deal would move most China business risks off A. O. Smith's books. A delay or failed approval could keep the shift from taking effect.
Supportive ifThe 81% sale to CPE closes by June 30, 2027, after required approvals.
Worry ifRequired approval is denied, or the sale has not closed by June 30, 2027.
Why it matters: The latest margin was 23.6%, down from 24.2%. A return to 24.2% would show recovery despite lower heater volumes and higher costs.
Supportive ifNorth America segment margin reaches at least 24.2% in a later quarter.
Worry ifNorth America segment margin stays below 23.6% in a later quarter.
Why it matters: This tests the earnings outlook for the focused business. Results below the range floor would show the outlook was not met.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 adjusted EPS, excluding China and listed costs, is below $3.42.
Less concerning ifFull-year 2026 adjusted EPS, excluding China and listed costs, is at least $3.42 and no more than $3.52.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$104 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $276 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,123 loss on $10,000 · 31.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.