A. O. Smith (AOS)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$60.48-0.08%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AOS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 2.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 63 industry peers
AOS — earnings miss
Dated 2026-04-30
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 30, 2026, A. O. Smith Corporation (“the Company”) issued a news release announcing the Company’s results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Company’s news release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K (this “Current Report”) and is incorporated by reference herein.
Why it matters: China's market is critical for A. O. Smith's growth. Weakness could hurt overall performance.
Worry ifManagement reports better sales or good news from the China market.
Less concerning ifChina sales may drop more or there could be bad news about the market.
Why it matters: This report will show if the company can meet its sales growth target of 2% to 5%.
Watch forEarnings report shows sales growth of 2% or more compared to Q3 2022.
Also watch forEarnings report shows sales growth below 2% compared to Q3 2022.
Why it matters: Sales in China are very important for growth. Ongoing issues may hurt global results.
Worry ifChina sales show improvement with growth of more than 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifChina sales decline year over year by more than 12%.
Why it matters: New products can drive sales growth and improve market position. They are crucial for future performance.
Supportive ifAt least three new products are announced. They get good feedback from the market.
Worry ifNo new products are announced. New products get a bad reception in the market.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$131 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $272 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,068 loss on $10,000 · 30.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This plan will show if the company can make more money and grow.
Supportive ifRestructuring leads to at least a 10% rise in North America water treatment earnings in Q4 2026.
Worry ifSegment earnings decline or show no improvement in Q4 2026.
Why it matters: A significant drop in water heater sales would signal ongoing weakness in the market. This could hurt overall revenue and margins.
Worry ifNorth America water heater sales decline more than 10% year over year in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNorth America water heater sales remain stable or grow year over year.
Why it matters: Strong free cash flow supports capital allocation and shareholder returns. It reflects financial health.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported above $575 million for the quarter.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $575 million for the quarter.
Why it matters: Successful changes could help make more money. This would support growth in a tough market.
Supportive ifManagement says they finished restructuring. They expect savings of $6M to $8M.
Worry ifThere may be more delays or higher costs in restructuring.
Why it matters: Stable or lower material costs can help increase profits.
Supportive ifQ4 2023 material costs reported to be similar to or lower than Q3 2023.
Worry ifQ4 2023 material costs reported to be higher than Q3 2023.
Why it matters: If sales in China recover, it means better market conditions. It also shows good management. This is important for overall growth.
Supportive ifChina sales reported to grow year-over-year in Q3 2023.
Worry ifChina sales fell compared to last year in Q3 2023.
Why it matters: Successful integration of Water Tec could enhance A. O. Smith's water treatment capabilities and market share.
Supportive ifManagement says Water Tec helped profits in the first year after buying it.
Worry ifIntegration problems cause Water Tec to contribute less than expected in the first year.
Why it matters: Lower EPS guidance shows ongoing problems. This affects what investors expect.
Worry ifManagement raises EPS guidance for 2026 above the current range of $3.60 to $3.90.
Less concerning ifManagement lowers EPS guidance further below the current range of $3.60 to $3.90.
Why it matters: More share buybacks show trust in cash flow and business strength.
Supportive ifThe company plans to repurchase over $300 million in shares for 2026.
Worry ifThe share repurchase target is under $300 million. This shows cash flow concerns.
Why it matters: Sales growth in this area is key for the company. It shows market demand.
Supportive ifNorth America water heater sales grow year over year by more than 5%.
Worry ifSales are down year over year. This shows ongoing weakness in the market.
Why it matters: China's market performance is crucial for A. O. Smith's growth. Weakness here could impact overall results.
Worry ifManagement says sales are better in China.
Less concerning ifManagement says there is still weakness or falling sales in China.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company meets its sales growth target. This is key for investor confidence.
Watch forQ3 2023 adjusted EPS is over $0.90. This shows strong performance.
Also watch forQ3 2023 adjusted EPS falls below $0.90, signaling weaker demand.