Amphenol (APH)
NYSEInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$82.78+0.87%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Amphenol is growing fast with revenue up about 50% year over year. It is a key supplier for AI data centers, boosting sales to $8.15 billion in Q2 2026. EPS is expected to rise to about $1.15 next quarter. The company integrates a $4.1 billion acquisition to expand its cable business.
Growth may slow if AI demand weakens or integration of the new business falters. Debt issuance could pressure capital allocation. Profit margins might shrink if costs rise or competition intensifies.
The stock trades about 16% above our fair value near $138, reflecting analysts' 29.5% revenue growth expectation. Our fair value is 23% below the Street median, suggesting some caution versus bullish consensus.
Breaks if: CCS sales fall below $4.1 billion in 2026
Breaks if: Debt issuance leads to credit rating downgrade or capital allocation cuts
Q2 2026 EPS falls below $1.14
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth through acquisitions and innovation. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong revenue growth and consistent capital returns to shareholders.
The market currently prices APH as cheap compared to its peers, with a notable expectations gap. This suggests that investors are not fully accounting for the company's strong recent performance and growth potential.
Fundamentals are likely to remain strong, given management's focus on profitability and margin expansion. Recent financial performance has been robust, although there is a low probability of missing earnings expectations.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain growth through acquisitions and innovation. Additionally, external factors like Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and performance of sector peers will be crucial in shaping future outcomes.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a positive outlook. There is also potential for growth through acquisitions and organic innovation. Selling pressure from weaker demand expectations for AI hardware is a concern. However, the overall thesis remains intact.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Q2 2026 revenue falls below $8.1 billion
Over the next 1 to 3 years, APH appears to be well-positioned, but investors should monitor key external factors and management execution. Not investment advice.