Amphenol (APH)
NYSEInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$79.01-6.15%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · APH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 53.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 30.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 23 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
APH — President transition
Dated 2026-10-06
President — Luc Walter: The filing discloses an internal succession where a division president is moving to a new SVP role within the company, with a named successor, rather than leaving the organization.
Why it matters: The Q4 range calls for adjusted EPS of $0.81 to $0.83. A miss would break that stated profit outlook.
Worry ifQ4 2026 adjusted diluted EPS is below $0.81, the low end of the stated range.
Less concerning ifQ4 2026 adjusted diluted EPS is at or above $0.81.
Why it matters: Amphenol raised its CommScope sales view from $4.6 billion to $5.1 billion. Falling short would weaken that progress signal.
Worry ifCommScope 2026 sales are below $5.1 billion, Amphenol’s latest full-year view.
Less concerning ifCommScope 2026 sales reach or exceed $5.1 billion.
Why it matters: The new three-year plan starts January 1, 2027. Actual repurchases would show the company is putting it into action.
Supportive ifA company filing or earnings release says shares were bought under the new plan after January 1, 2027.
Worry ifAmphenol reports no shares bought under the plan through the first half of 2027.
Why it matters: Q3 sales reached $10.2 billion, and orders topped sales. Beating the Q4 range would extend that growth.
Supportive ifQ4 2026 sales exceed $10.5 billion, above the company’s stated range of $10.3 billion to $10.5 billion.
Worry ifQ4 2026 sales fall below $10.3 billion, the low end of the stated range.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$154 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $477 loss on $10,000 · 4.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,819 loss on $10,000 · 28.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.