AppLovin (APP)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$320.56+2.23%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Adjusted EBITDA margin near 84.5% next quarter: Q3 FY26 EBITDA margin guidance 83.0% vs target 84.5%.
AppLovin grows revenue about 44% yearly, hitting $1.93 billion next quarter. Profit margins stay very high near 84.5%. The company keeps beating earnings estimates despite tough competition. New product launches and buybacks support future growth.
Competition pressure and insider selling may hurt growth and leadership. The recent guidance cut shows risks to revenue momentum. High valuation means any slowdown could cause a sharp share price drop.
The price is about 14% above our fair value near $467, reflecting strong revenue growth of 44%. Our fair value is 32% below the Street median, so the market partly prices in more optimism than we see.
Breaks if: EBITDA margin falls below 82% next quarter
Breaks if: Significant leadership departures or instability reported
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on consistent revenue growth and profitability. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance despite some risks in the sector.
The market appears to have priced in a neutral valuation, with expectations slightly below peers. APP is seen as cheap compared to its competitors, but there is a fragility due to weak execution quality.
Management has consistently prioritized revenue growth and has delivered strong results, with a 30% increase in revenue over six quarters. However, the adjusted EBITDA margin has shown mixed results, which may impact future profitability.
The long-term thesis hinges on APP's ability to maintain strong revenue growth and manage profitability. Key factors include the Fed's interest rate decisions and the performance of sector leaders like SAP and CRM, which could influence market sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. Analysts expect slower revenue growth than management's guidance. They predict revenue growth of about 32.1% a year through 2027. This is lower than the company's guidance of 46-48% growth. There are also legal investigations that could impact investor confidence.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Ensure smooth leadership changes with named successors and consulting arrangements.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 6 quarters. Management disclosed executive retirements with successors named and consulting arrangements. While qualitative, the company has communicated active management of leadership transitions.
“CTO and Chief Administrative & Legal Officer retiring with successors named and consulting arrangements”
“Management discussed executive transitions and leadership continuity plans”
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $1,915 million next quarter
Overall, APP's fundamentals are solid, but the elevated risks and potential for guidance cuts could create volatility. Not investment advice.