AppLovin (APP)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$320.56+2.23%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · APP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -4.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 37.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 41.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
APP — CEO transition
Dated 2026-04-07
Chief Technology Officer, Chief Administrative & Legal Officer, Director — Basil Shikin, Victoria Valenzuela, Alyssa Harvey Dawson: Mr. Shikin and Ms. Valenzuela are retiring from their executive roles, but with successors named and consulting arrangements in place.
Why it matters: Ongoing investment from GQG can show confidence in AppLovin's growth.
Supportive ifGQG buys more AppLovin shares, showing they support the company.
Worry ifGQG cuts or stops buying shares, suggesting a lack of confidence.
Why it matters: Earnings results will provide insights into financial health and future guidance. This is a key event for investors.
Watch forEarnings report shows strong results with positive guidance.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows bad results or negative guidance.
Why it matters: GQG's large purchase of shares shows confidence in AppLovin. This could attract more investors.
Supportive ifStock price increases following the completion of GQG's share purchase.
Worry ifStock price declines despite GQG's investment.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this guidance shows strong revenue growth. It confirms management's focus on growth.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue reported at or above $2.055 billion.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported below $2.055 billion.
Why it matters: The offering's success will show how well AppLovin can manage its debt and finance growth.
Watch forThe company finishes the offering and shares the terms of the senior notes.
Also watch forThe offering does not close or terms are bad, showing market resistance.
Why it matters: Continuing the repurchase program signals confidence in the company's value. It can support share price.
Supportive ifManagement plans more share buybacks in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo share repurchases announced in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A drop below 50% growth in net income may show weaker profit trends.
Worry ifQ3 net income growth rate reported at or above 50%.
Less concerning ifQ3 net income growth rate reported below 50%.
Why it matters: A beat would confirm strong operational performance and investor confidence. It builds on the recent earnings beat.
Supportive ifQ3 earnings are better than what analysts expected.
Worry ifQ3 earnings are worse than what analysts expected.
Why it matters: A margin at or above this level shows strong profits. It means good cost control.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is at or above 83%.
Worry ifThe adjusted EBITDA margin is less than 83%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$231 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $789 loss on $10,000 · 7.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,930 loss on $10,000 · 59.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.