AppLovin (APP)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$271.75+10.69%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · APP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -8.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 41.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 49.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 36 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
APP — CEO transition
Dated 2026-04-07
Chief Technology Officer, Chief Administrative & Legal Officer, Director — Basil Shikin, Victoria Valenzuela, Alyssa Harvey Dawson: Mr. Shikin and Ms. Valenzuela are retiring from their executive roles, but with successors named and consulting arrangements in place.
Why it matters: Q3 revenue above the top of guidance would extend the strong growth seen in Q2.
Supportive ifIn the November 4 Q3 report, revenue is above $2.085 billion.
Worry ifIn the November 4 Q3 report, revenue is below $2.055 billion.
Why it matters: A margin below guidance would break the recent pattern of high margins. It would also miss a stated management priority.
Worry ifThe Q3 report shows Adjusted EBITDA margin below 83%.
Less concerning ifThe Q3 report shows Adjusted EBITDA margin at or above 83%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$197 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $789 loss on $10,000 · 7.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,885 loss on $10,000 · 68.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.