Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
ArcBest Corp. (ARCB)
NASDAQIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$133.59-4.09%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
9.55 → 9.55 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ARCB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Quarterly dividend remains at $0.12 per share | The company maintains a steady dividend of $0.12 per share. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.12 in any quarter | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ARCB is a cyclical transportation business with robust earnings quality but recent weak financial performance. Its long-term thesis is in a watch state: management has launched a technology product, while profitability and execution remain unsettled.
The valuation model describes ARCB as expensive versus peers, with a 1.25 peer premium and an expectations gap of -0.32. Pricing is tagged as justified and fragility is low, but the evidence does not show that the valuation leaves much room for weak results.
Near term, results may remain pressured by the sector headwind and recent weakness; operating income moved from a small profit in the first quarter of 2026 to a loss in the second. ArcBest View launched in the second quarter, but its financial contribution is not established, and the repeated focus on efficiency has not yet produced consistent improvement.
The multi-year thesis hinges on whether efficiency efforts improve profitability and whether the ArcBest brand and technology initiatives contribute meaningfully. Near term, a guidance cut would be a negative signal; continued strong results from sector peers could support the backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.
Over the next one to three years, ARCB’s case depends on translating management initiatives into stronger, steadier results amid a difficult sector backdrop. Its expensive peer-relative valuation and recent weakness leave the thesis under watch. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| ArcBest grew revenue 3% in Q1 2026 and improved operating income from -$8.3M to $3.4M. |
| Broken |
| Operating income falls below $3M in Q2 2026 |
Operating margin: 6.06% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=3.0 to 5.0 USD million. Target percentage unit is not explicit. Nov 4, 20266.058143 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows at least 11% next year | Analysts expect 11% revenue growth next year. | Improving | YoY revenue growth falls below 11% in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$9.33 → $9.55 · observed estimates
$4.78B → $4.86B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $9.33 | $4,775,540,390 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-07-25 | $9.33 | $4,775,540,390 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-07-26 | $9.33 | $4,775,540,390 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-07-27 | $9.33 | $4,775,540,390 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-07-28 | $9.33 | $4,775,540,390 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-07-29 | $9.33 | $4,775,540,390 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-07-30 | $9.33 | $4,775,540,390 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-07-31 | $9.45 | $4,834,772,640 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-01 | $9.48 | $4,835,670,657 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $9.42 | $4,836,359,360 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-03 | $9.42 | $4,836,359,360 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-04 | $9.42 | $4,836,359,360 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-05 | $9.49 | $4,834,689,330 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-06 | $9.49 | $4,834,689,330 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-07 | $9.49 | $4,834,669,853 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $9.49 | $4,834,689,330 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-09 | $9.49 | $4,834,689,330 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-10 | $9.49 | $4,834,689,330 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-11 | $9.49 | $4,834,689,330 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-12 | $9.49 | $4,834,689,330 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-13 | $9.49 | $4,834,689,330 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-14 | $9.49 | $4,834,669,853 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $9.49 | $4,834,669,853 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $9.49 | $4,834,669,853 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $9.49 | $4,834,669,853 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $9.49 | $4,834,669,853 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $9.49 | $4,834,669,853 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $9.49 | $4,834,669,853 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $9.49 | $4,834,670,815 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $9.49 | $4,834,670,815 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $9.49 | $4,834,670,815 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $9.49 | $4,834,670,815 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $9.49 | $4,834,670,815 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $9.49 | $4,834,670,815 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $9.49 | $4,834,670,815 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $9.49 | $4,834,670,815 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $9.49 | $4,834,670,815 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $9.49 | $4,834,670,815 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $9.49 | $4,834,670,815 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $9.49 | $4,834,670,815 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $9.49 | $4,834,670,815 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $9.49 | $4,834,670,815 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $9.49 | $4,834,670,815 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $9.49 | $4,834,670,815 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $9.49 | $4,834,670,815 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $9.49 | $4,834,670,815 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $9.49 | $4,834,670,815 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $9.49 | $4,834,670,815 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $9.52 | $4,842,922,245 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $9.54 | $4,838,398,015 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $9.54 | $4,838,398,015 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $9.54 | $4,838,398,015 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $9.54 | $4,838,398,015 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $9.54 | $4,838,398,015 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $9.54 | $4,838,398,015 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $9.54 | $4,838,398,015 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $9.54 | $4,838,398,015 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $9.54 | $4,838,398,015 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $9.54 | $4,838,398,015 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $9.54 | $4,838,398,015 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $9.54 | $4,838,398,015 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $9.54 | $4,838,398,015 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $9.54 | $4,838,398,015 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $9.54 | $4,838,398,015 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $9.54 | $4,838,398,015 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $9.54 | $4,838,398,015 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $9.54 | $4,838,398,015 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $9.54 | $4,838,398,015 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $9.54 | $4,838,398,015 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $9.54 | $4,838,398,015 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $9.54 | $4,838,398,015 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $9.54 | $4,838,398,015 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $9.55 | $4,839,405,707 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $9.55 | $4,839,405,707 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $9.55 | $4,836,259,639 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $9.58 | $4,841,605,793 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $9.49 | $4,846,175,024 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $9.56 | $4,854,407,983 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $9.56 | $4,854,407,983 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $9.56 | $4,854,407,983 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $9.56 | $4,854,407,983 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $9.56 | $4,854,407,983 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $9.56 | $4,854,407,983 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $9.56 | $4,854,407,983 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $9.56 | $4,854,407,983 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $9.56 | $4,854,407,983 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $9.55 | $4,860,559,906 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $9.55 | $4,860,559,906 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $9.55 | $4,860,559,906 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $9.55 | $4,860,559,906 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $9.55 | $4,860,559,906 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $9.55 | $4,860,559,906 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $9.55 | $4,860,559,906 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $9.55 | $4,860,559,906 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $9.55 | $4,860,559,906 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $9.55 | $4,860,559,906 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $9.55 | $4,860,559,906 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $9.55 | $4,860,559,906 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $9.55 | $4,860,559,906 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $9.55 | $4,860,559,906 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $9.55 | $4,860,559,906 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $9.55 | $4,860,559,906 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $9.55 | $4,860,559,906 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $9.55 | $4,860,559,906 | 8 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.