ArcBest Corp. (ARCB)
NASDAQIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$141.12+2.75%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ARCB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -8.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 20.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ARCB — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-24
OTHER EVENTS On July 24, 2026, ArcBest ® (Nasdaq: ARCB) issued a press release announcing the approval by the Board of Directors of a quarterly cash dividend of $0.12 per share to holders of record on August 7, 2026, payable on August 21, 2026. A copy of the press release is filed as an exhibit to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Why it matters: Saving money would show that brand changes and operations are working.
Supportive ifManagement says they reached or surpassed the $40 million savings goal.
Worry ifManagement says cost savings are less than expected or not met.
Why it matters: The brand restructuring aims to improve efficiency and customer access. Revenue growth will show if this strategy works.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue grew more than 10% compared to last year. This shows good brand integration.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth is less than 5% year over year, suggesting the changes did not help.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial health. It shows a commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Supportive ifArcBest announces a dividend of $0.12 per share for Q2. This shows financial stability.
Worry ifArcBest cuts or stops the dividend. This may show potential financial trouble.
Why it matters: The brand restructuring aims to simplify operations and improve customer access. This could drive revenue growth if successful.
Supportive ifRevenue growth in the following quarter exceeds the 28.3% increase seen in Q2 for Asset-Light revenue.
Worry ifRevenue growth fails to meet or falls below the 28.3% increase from Q2.
Why it matters: The brand simplification aims to make things work better. It could help the company earn more.
Supportive ifThe brand simplification could save about $40 million each year.
Worry ifCost savings do not happen or operations get worse after the changes.
Why it matters: Improving operating income is key for long-term growth. It shows the company is managing costs well.
Supportive ifQ3 operating income is rising. It is now above $20 million.
Worry ifOperating income is still negative. It is below $20 million.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth shows demand for services and good pricing. This boosts investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 revenue growth exceeds 10% compared to Q3 2025.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue growth is below 5% compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: This shows progress in making more money. It is a key focus for management. Meeting this target shows good cost management.
Supportive ifQ2 operating income was $5 million or more.
Worry ifQ2 operating income was less than $3 million.
Why it matters: Confirming the dividend shows that the company is financially healthy. It also shows a promise to shareholders.
Watch forThe company pays the $0.12 dividend on August 21, 2026, as scheduled.
Also watch forThe company says there will be a delay or cut in the dividend payment.
Why it matters: Changes to the dividend show how management views cash flow and financial health. Keeping the dividend shows commitment to shareholders.
Watch forThey announced they will keep or raise the dividend.
Also watch forThey announced a cut in the dividend.
Why it matters: Growth in Asset-Light revenue shows strong demand for logistics services. This helps management focus on revenue growth.
Supportive ifAsset-Light revenue grew more than 7% year over year.
Worry ifAsset-Light revenue grew less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Operating income shows how well a company makes money. A rise means better cost control.
Supportive ifOperating income increases from the Q2 loss of $20.6 million to a positive figure in Q3.
Worry ifOperating income stays negative or gets worse in Q3.
Why it matters: Higher contract renewals show strong pricing power. This helps keep customers.
Supportive ifAverage contract renewals rise above 5.8% in Q3.
Worry ifContract renewals are below 5.8%. This shows pricing pressure.
Why it matters: Successful cost savings will show the effectiveness of the new brand structure. This can boost profitability.
Supportive ifAnnualized cost savings reach or exceed $40 million as planned.
Worry ifCost savings fall short of $40 million or restructuring efforts face delays.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$207 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $482 loss on $10,000 · 4.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,477 loss on $10,000 · 24.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.