Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Ares Management (ARES)
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
$133.72-2.29%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
7.24 → 7.00 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ARES yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain or increase dividend payouts at $1.35 per share | Dividends rose from $1.12 to $1.35 per share, showing steady payouts. | Broken | dividend per share falls below $1.35 in 2026-Q1 | Dividend per share: $1.35 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.35 per share quarterly. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 20261.35 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ARES is a financial business with a long-term thesis tied to fundraising, investing capital, and growing earnings. Fundraising and deployment priorities are on track, but recent performance is neutral, management is rated volatile, and the thesis is in a watch state.
ARES trades at a 1.85 premium versus peers, and the valuation evidence points to re-rating as the main driver. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations may be ahead of what the current evidence supports; overall, pricing is tagged justified, with low fragility.
In the near term, recent earnings misses and below-cohort performance temper the picture, though the reported miss risk is low. In 2026-Q3, ARES reported more than $31 billion in gross capital commitments, invested $35 billion across strategies, and increased fee related earnings from the prior quarter; the full-year record fundraising goal remains an expectation.
The multi-year view hinges on whether ARES turns continued fundraising and capital deployment into sustained earnings growth. Near-term, another guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers such as BLK, BX, and KKR would support sector momentum; rate cuts are a stated sector risk.
ARES has clear operating progress, but the fresh miss and elevated risk leave the 1-to-3-year thesis mixed and worth watching. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 6 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Common Stock Dividend Ares declared a quarterly dividend of $1.35 per share of its Class A and non-voting common stock, payable on December 31, 2026 to its Class A and non-voting common stockholders of record at the close of business on December 17, 2026.” ““With our platform’s enhanced global fundraising and investment capabilities and more than $150 billion of available capital, we are well positioned to generate strong earnings for our shareholders, as evidenced by this morning’s announcement of a 20% increase in our quarterly common stock dividend.””
Maintain strong fundraising revenue near $1.3 billion in Q1 2026 | Ares aims to keep strong fundraising, shown by $1.3 billion revenue in Q1 2026. | Broken | fundraising revenue falls below $1.3 billion in Q1 2026 | Revenue: $1.294B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.3 billion in Q1 2026. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 20261,293,657,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Generate over $350 million in net performance income in 2026 | It targets over $350 million in net performance income for 2026. | Intact | net performance income falls below $350 million in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Expand partnerships and acquisitions to boost fundraising | A supporting condition in Ares Management's published investment case. The stated target is Continue deals like Clearstream and pipeline acquisitions. | Intact | No new partnerships or acquisitions in next 4 quarters | 3 new partnerships/M&A deals vs 0 trip threshold Ares formed a €1.5B Norway venture, a $2.4B logistics venture, and weighed a Copenhagen deal. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.27 → $7.00 · observed estimates
$5.87B → $6.67B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $7.27 | $5,867,739,830 | 17 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $7.27 | $5,867,739,830 | 17 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $7.27 | $5,867,739,830 | 17 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $7.31 | $6,762,318,304 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $7.22 | $5,809,670,400 | 15 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $7.22 | $5,809,670,400 | 15 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $7.22 | $5,809,670,400 | 15 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $7.22 | $5,809,670,400 | 15 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $7.22 | $5,809,670,400 | 15 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $7.21 | $5,801,650,400 | 15 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $7.21 | $5,801,650,400 | 15 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $7.20 | $5,811,965,400 | 15 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $7.19 | $5,811,965,400 | 15 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $7.19 | $5,811,965,400 | 15 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $7.29 | $6,740,896,110 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $7.19 | $5,811,965,400 | 15 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $7.19 | $5,811,965,400 | 15 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $7.19 | $5,811,965,400 | 15 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $7.19 | $5,811,965,400 | 15 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $7.19 | $5,811,965,400 | 15 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $7.19 | $5,811,965,400 | 15 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $7.29 | $6,740,896,110 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $7.29 | $6,740,896,110 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $7.29 | $6,740,896,110 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $7.29 | $6,740,896,110 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $7.29 | $6,740,896,110 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $7.29 | $6,740,896,110 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $7.28 | $6,355,116,991 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $7.28 | $6,355,116,991 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $7.28 | $6,355,116,991 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $7.28 | $6,355,116,991 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $7.28 | $6,355,116,991 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $7.28 | $6,355,116,991 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $7.28 | $6,355,116,991 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $7.28 | $6,355,116,991 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $7.28 | $6,355,116,991 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $7.28 | $6,355,116,991 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $7.28 | $6,355,116,991 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $7.28 | $6,355,116,991 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $7.28 | $6,355,116,991 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $7.28 | $6,355,116,991 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $7.28 | $6,355,116,991 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $7.28 | $6,355,116,991 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $7.28 | $6,355,116,991 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $7.28 | $6,355,116,991 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $7.28 | $6,355,116,991 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $7.28 | $6,355,116,991 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $7.28 | $6,355,116,991 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $7.28 | $6,355,116,991 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $7.28 | $6,355,116,991 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $7.28 | $6,456,469,822 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $7.28 | $6,456,469,822 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $7.28 | $6,456,469,822 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $7.28 | $6,456,469,822 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $7.28 | $6,456,469,822 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $7.28 | $6,456,469,822 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $7.28 | $6,456,469,822 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $7.28 | $6,456,469,822 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $7.28 | $6,456,469,822 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $7.28 | $6,456,469,822 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $7.28 | $6,456,469,822 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $7.28 | $6,456,469,822 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $7.28 | $6,456,469,822 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $7.27 | $6,554,431,276 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $7.27 | $6,554,431,276 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $7.27 | $6,554,431,276 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $7.27 | $6,554,431,276 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $7.27 | $6,554,431,276 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $7.27 | $6,554,431,276 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $7.27 | $6,554,431,276 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $7.27 | $6,554,431,276 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $7.26 | $6,639,377,367 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $7.26 | $6,639,377,367 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $7.24 | $6,639,377,367 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $7.23 | $6,639,377,367 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $7.22 | $6,621,902,367 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $7.22 | $6,621,902,367 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $7.22 | $6,621,902,367 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $7.22 | $6,621,902,367 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $7.22 | $6,616,139,867 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $7.22 | $6,616,139,867 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $7.21 | $6,616,139,867 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $7.18 | $6,764,954,163 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $7.18 | $6,764,954,163 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $7.14 | $6,731,843,312 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $7.14 | $6,731,843,312 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $7.14 | $6,731,843,312 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $7.14 | $6,731,843,312 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $7.14 | $6,731,843,312 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $7.15 | $6,731,843,312 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $7.14 | $6,731,843,312 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $7.14 | $6,731,843,312 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $7.13 | $6,731,843,312 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $7.13 | $6,731,843,312 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $7.13 | $6,731,843,312 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $7.13 | $6,731,843,312 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $7.12 | $6,708,854,741 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $7.12 | $6,708,854,741 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $7.10 | $6,708,855,413 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $7.04 | $6,673,825,853 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $7.04 | $6,673,825,853 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $7.04 | $6,673,825,853 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $7.00 | $6,673,036,455 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $7.00 | $6,673,036,455 | 13 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 10 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.