Ares Management (ARES)
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
$140.15-0.97%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ARES
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 2.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 14.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 11.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 35 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ARES — earnings in line
Dated 2026-07-31
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . On July 31, 2026, the registrant issued a press release announcing its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. The text of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The information disclosed under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and shall not be…
Why it matters: Strong AUM growth shows Ares can attract and keep capital in a tough market.
Supportive ifAUM growth exceeds 20% year over year, reflecting strong investor demand.
Worry ifIf AUM growth is below 15% each year, it may mean a weaker market position.
Why it matters: This would show Ares is on track to meet its annual performance income target. Strong performance income supports overall growth.
Supportive ifIn Q2 2026, net performance income was over $50 million.
Worry ifIn Q2 2026, net performance income was under $50 million.
Why it matters: This report will reveal if Ares can maintain its growth trajectory. Earnings performance is key for investor confidence.
Watch forEarnings report shows net income growth year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows net income decline year over year.
Why it matters: Strong fundraising helps Ares grow. It shows that investors still want to invest.
Supportive ifIn Q3, fundraising reached over $36 billion. This keeps the upward trend going.
Worry ifFundraising fell below $30 billion. This shows that investors are less interested.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$141 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $468 loss on $10,000 · 4.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,682 loss on $10,000 · 46.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This would confirm strong investor demand and support Ares' growth strategy. Record fundraising boosts AUM and fees.
Supportive ifIn Q2 2026, fundraising was over $30 billion.
Worry ifIn Q2 2026, fundraising was under $30 billion.
Why it matters: Strong fundraising would show ongoing investor demand. It would also support growth targets.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 fundraising results reported at or above $30 billion.
Worry ifQ2 2026 fundraising results were below $30 billion.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows strong cash flow and care for shareholders. A steady dividend helps investor trust.
Supportive ifDividend payout remains at $1.35 per share for the next quarter.
Worry ifDividend payout decreases below $1.35 per share.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show Ares' financial health. They will also show growth trends.
Watch forEarnings results show big growth in AUM and fee earnings.
Also watch forEarnings results show a decline in AUM or fee-related earnings.
Why it matters: An increase shows strong financial health. It also shows a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase above $1.35 per share for Q3.
Worry ifNo increase in the dividend from the current $1.35 per share.
Why it matters: Confirming the dividend payout shows Ares is committed to returning value to shareholders. It reflects financial health.
Supportive ifDividend payout of $1.35 per share is confirmed on September 30, 2026.
Worry ifDividend payout is cut or stopped. This shows financial trouble.
Why it matters: Exceeding this target would show Ares is doing well. It would confirm their growth.
Supportive ifNet performance income for 2026 exceeds $350 million.
Worry ifNet performance income fell below $300 million. This shows weaker investment returns.
Why it matters: Consistent dividend growth shows strong cash flow. It also shows good capital management.
Supportive ifQuarterly dividends increased to more than $1.35 per share.
Worry ifDividends remain flat or decrease, suggesting cash flow issues.